I just gave birth to my weekly syndicated vibe A Five Step Guide to Contagion: Why European Debt Matters to the United States. It'll post tomorrow as per the usual schedule but I’m offering a heads up as this topic seems particularly relevant. Remember The Minyanville Underground Railroad has an early look on these weekly pieces as well as other snazzy community courtesies if you’re so inclined. The specter of Greek aid -- a midday headline read “ EURO ZONE GOVERNMENTS HAVE DECIDED IN PRINCIPLE TO HELP GREECE-SENIOR GERMAN RULING COALITION SOURCE” -- was well timed; the wheels were ...

Something about headlines always gives me a nose-scrunch. Perhaps in the wise words of our fallen friend Bennet Sedacca "What the market knows ain't worth knowing." There's a fine line between being early and being wrong of course; it's called profitability. Was I wrong to own size Fannie Mae (FNM) $70-line puts in my personal account for years rolling them month after month as I waited for the mortgage giant to implode? Yes I finally tossed it on my restricted list just weeks before it cascaded lower (lesson learned: always sync your time horizon with your risk profile).Were we ...

Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com which is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton New Jersey that covers more than 5 000 stocks every day.The America’s Community Bankers Index (ABAQ) is just below breakeven year to date and just above its 200-day simple moving average at 146.34.ABAQ is an index of more than 500 publicly traded community banks and many are overexposed to Construction and Development Loans and Nonfarm Nonresidential real estate loans where the three categories define a risk category called CRE loans.Four of my 10 predictions for 2010 ...

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Go from good to great.

The more I hear about Freddie Mac (Symbol: FRE) and Fannie Mae (Symbol: FNM), the more I start to feel like I’m one of the kids in the scene from the movie “Stand By Me,” where the kids are crossing over the old wooden bridge.[More...]

This is a nice overview story in the Wall Street Journal on what FanFredron (Fannie + Freddie + Enron) have become:  a governmental warehouse of losses to subsidize the US housing market.[More...]

Today’s tickers: FNM, EWZ, IYR, GILD, FXI, WLP, EEM, ARG, DWA & WMB

FNM – Fannie Mae – Mortgage-financer, familiarly known as Fannie Mae, jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one investor went hog-wild with put options. Fannie’s shares slipped 3% during the trading day to $0.95 apiece. The investor appears to have traded 118,000 in-the-money put options at the March $1.0 strike for a premium of $0.15 apiece, spread against the sale of 118,000 puts at the January 2012 $1.0 strike for a premium of $0.40 each. Open interest of 156,689 puts at the March $1.0 strike indicate the trader could be buying-to-close a previously established 118,000-lot short put position initiated back in September of 2009. If this is the case, the investor is extending the short put position out to the January 2012 contract and expecting the government agency to ultimately survive the next couple of years. In this scenario, the trader keeps the $0.40 in premium on the sale of the fresh batch of put options if Fannie’s share price rallies above $1.00 by expiration in 2012. But, there are a other possible explanations for the trade. It is possible that the open interest at the March $1.0 strike is unrelated to today’s activity. In this second scenario, the trader is essentially predicting that shares will erode ahead of March expiration. If this is the case the trader sold 118,000 January 2012 $1.0 strike puts for $0.40 apiece in order to take a long 118,000-lot put stance at the March $1.0 strike for which he paid $0.15 each. The net credit received in this scenario amounts to $0.25 per contract and generates additional profits as Fannie’s shares continue to fall under $1.00. It will be interesting to see whether the open interest level at the March $1.0 strike changes to reflect the closing of a previously established long or short put position. Regardless of the direction of- or motivation behind- the transaction the large volume of the trading activity is certainly noteworthy.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – A ratio put spread enacted on the Brazil ETF suggests we may continue to see bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration in June. Shares of the fund are down 3% to $61.80 as of 2:20 pm (EDT). The investor responsible for the transaction purchased 7,500 puts at the June $60 strike…

After enduring extraordinary shocks in 2008, the U.S. banks entered an exceptional state of turmoil in 2009. Starting as a credit issue in the subprime segment of the mortgage market, the sticky situation infected almost the entire financial services industry, and all corners of the globe. In other words, the financial crisis ultimately morphed into [...]

(JPM) U.S. Banks Stock Update – February 2010 – Industry Outlook

After enduring extraordinary shocks in 2008, the U.S. banks entered an exceptional state of turmoil in 2009. Starting as a credit issue in the subprime segment of the mortgage market, the sticky situation infected almost the entire financial services industry, and all corners of the globe. In other words, the financial crisis ultimately morphed into a massive economic crisis, which has had major ramifications across the whole world.[More...]

Stacy Summary:  Item says it’s based on renewed hope; I’m sure, however, we will soon learn what the insider traders know thanks to Timmy & Benny?  Joe Bag of Donuts can then be sold the insiders inflated shares.  Got to make sure we can get enough wealth at top so that it can trickle down, [...]

Tom Dorsey and Tammy DeRosier - 2008 Year End Wrap-Up

Schaeffer's Equities Analyst Colleen S. King a look at news on the Street before the market open.

Schaeffer's analyst Colleen S. King takes a look at news on the Street before the market open.

 Here’s a handy table (for your printing pleasure) that shows what percentage gain you need to get on your investments to get back to where you were before a certain percentage loss. So for example, the S&P 500 index is down about 40% year to date. Looking down the table, you’ll see that we’d need [...]