This is the 2nd of two parts highlighting several financial service companies who may have negative credit card exposure from mounting consumer debt and rising unemployment.
Capital One Financial (COF) has seen its charge-off rates rise to 6.16% in November, up from 4.51% one year ago. The shares of this credit card issuer have held up [...]
I'm not the biggest fan of Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), the credit-card company that competes with MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V), and American Express (NYSE: AXP). I currently like Visa the best. Why? I like the brand, I like the fact that it doesn't have direct exposure to loans, and I think there's a lot of upside left to its stock price on a long-term basis (granted, the stock hasn't been strong lately). Nevertheless, I have to wonder if there might be trade potential with Discover's stock.
It's not so much the Q4 earnings. Net income from continuing operations more than doubled to $0.92 per share, something that looks great on the surface. It was helped along, however, by settlement proceeds relating to antitrust complaints against Visa and MasterCard. Not only that, but when you take a look at the consumer-confidence landscape, you'll see that it's pretty dreadful. It doesn't take too much thinking to realize that spending will be down and bad loans most likely will be up going forward. This doesn't benefit Discover. But, according to this article, government help does. Management wants access to some of the monies available in the now-famous federal rescue package. Bank-holding status, if Discover gets it, will do the trick.
This is why I see some trade potential with the stock. It rose the other day on the news, and as I am writing this now, the stock is up another 3%. If one was to play around with Discover, one should only do so temporarily, in my opinion. I think, on a longer-term basis, that either Visa or MasterCard are much better options for investing in the eventual consumer rebound (whenever that decides to happen, of course). Again, all you have to do is remember that Discover has more on the line in terms of charge-offs and loan provisions. Yes, the government can help out Discover's situation, and that will be valuable, but I still wouldn't want the company as a core member of my portfolio.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
FedEx Announces Profit, Cost Cuts; Report: Wal-Mart to Sell iPhones; GM Denies Chrysler Merger Talks; Discovery Applying for Bank Status; Initial Jobless Claims Down; Goldman Sells Sanyo Stake to Panasonic; IMF Sees 2009 U.S. Rebound; Carnival Cruises to 4Q Profit
FedEx Corp. (FDX) mixed bad news with good in its latest quarterly ...
US stocks slumped on Thursday on renewed concerns over the fate of automakers. Shares retreated after GE’s debt rating was cut to negative by S&P. Investor’s sentiment was also dampened by a sharp retreat in crude oil prices.[More...]
Credit card company Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) announced on Thursday, that it swung to profit in fourth quarter, thanks to a $863 million payment it received from a legal settlement.[More...]
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+ NY Times: Banks struggling to recover from multibillion-dollar losses on real estate are curtailing loans to American businesses, depriving even healthy companies of money for expansion and hiring.
+ Two vital forms of credit used by companies — commercial and industrial loans from [...]