NOTE TO EDITORS: The Following Is an Investment Opinion Being Issued by Benchmark Journal.

Steve's Ballmer's CES keynote speech is going on right now, but as embargoes lift we're getting an advance peek at what's likely to come.

The biggest news, via CNET: Microsoft has a deal in the works with Dell (DELL) to be the default search engine on new Dell PCs, which complements a similar deal with Verizon (VZ).

Depending on how the "default" is structured, this might modestly boost Microsoft's share of the search market--and thus help incoming Microsoft online chief Qi Lu's efforts to reform Microsoft's Internet presence.

(Kudos to Barclay's Doug Anmuth, who was right in predicting the Microsoft-Dell deal.)

What else is likely on Steve Ballmer's agenda? From what we already know, not much.

• Windows 7 goes into formal beta. Boring, expected, and 7 has been leaked onto P2P networks already anyway.
• Better integration coming between Facebook and Windows Live. Zzzzzzz...
• New Halo games. Expected, won't stop the Wii's dominance, won't kill off the PS3.
• New bells and whistles to the Ford Sync in-car entertainment system.

We continue to listen to Steve's speech, and we'll update with any surprises.

The desktop computer may go the way of disco dancing as more users embrace the portability of laptops and the ease of wireless communication. The PC introduced in the 1970s no longer offers significant advantage in cost memory or performance. No desktops were listed on Amazon's (AMZN) top 10 most popular computers before Christmas - but 7 laptops were. More users especially young people prefer to carry their computers with them to school the coffee shop - anywhere. The steady growth of wireless Internet in public places also makes laptops more attractive. The laptop may be a key element in ...

Now isn't the time for missed opportunities.

Market-trouncing returns could be written in this 5-star.

Microsoft (MSFT) is making it easier and easier for customers to avoid the widely-panned Vista.

In a deal last month, Microsoft allowed PC makers to effectively keep selling Windows XP through the end of May. (That's in response to a consumer aversion to Vista so strong that Dell (DELL) is charging customers an extra $150 to dump Vista for XP.)

Now Techarp.com says Microsoft will be working with PC makers to allow a free/cheap upgrade path to Windows 7 for users who buy Vista starting on July 1. Microsoft did the same thing with Windows XP in the days before the Vista release, so as to not discourage people from buying computers only a few months away from being outdated.

If the dates of both intiatives hold up, the only way you might get stuck with Vista as a consumer is if you buy a PC in June.

Overall, this is a good strategy for Microsoft. With Windows 7 coming hopefully later this year, there's no point in still pushing the Vista trainwreck.

See Also:
Microsoft Keeping XP On New PCs Through May 2009, At Least
Microsoft: We Know Vista Sucks, So Keep XP
Hate Vista? Dell Now Charging $150 Extra for Windows XP

Filed under: Dell (DELL), Intel (INTC), General Motors (GM), Home Depot (HD), Market matters, International Business Machines (IBM), Citigroup Inc. (C), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Black and Decker (BDK), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Lowe's Cos (LOW), Wells Fargo (WFC), DJIA, Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the next six components include one that may vanish from the index, as well as a top pick.

This is the third part of Jim Cramer's series of predictions for the Dow components in 2009. Be sure to read the first and second parts.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take): I believe GM will disappear from the Dow in 2009, a historic change. GM could, like AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), become a zombie stock, if the common stock isn't crushed in 2009 by bankruptcy. The GMAC deal is a windfall for the company, though, and a "soldier on" situation could be in the works.

The best hope here is a Citigroup-like (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) investment where the common stock is bolstered, but the union situation makes it highly unlikely that the company's fortunes can turn. This one's problematic for my whole Dow Jones projections because I believe its near or total obliteration will allow the Dow keepers to replace it with something that can rally in 2009. Cost-cutting just won't make it; there is way too much overcapacity in this industry.

Fortunately, given its reduced size, GM's disappearance won't hurt the averages much. If you really like this one, please play the GM Senior Convertible Debentures C (GPM), which is a convertible preferred with a high yield.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part III

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part III originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

12 inch Netbooks are coming. Dell has the Inspiron Mini 12, Samsung will unveil its 12 inch netbook model to the U.S. shortly, and more are coming. And Intel isn't happy about this at all. In fact, the whole Netbook market may be making them nervous. Despite the fact that they power most of these devices with their new Atom chip that handles some PC chores well and uses a lot less power (so batteries are smaller and last longer). Intel sees Netbooks as devices for people who can't afford normal laptops, or as second devices. But it's clear that a lot of people are buying them instead of normal dual core machines, despite their very serious limitations. That means that for the most part, every Netbook sold is one less Dual Core that Intel can sell at a higher price and higher margin. Which explains exactly why the company has been publicly criticizing the performance of the machines. "If you've ever used a Netbook and used a 10-inch screen size--it's fine for an hour. It's not something you're going to use day in and day out," said Intel VP Stu Pann at an event last year.

Based off the last news reports, without Steve Jobs, the multi-billion-dollar enterprise that is Apple (AAPL) would simply cease to exist. Every new report of his health is followed in the market, and Apple’s stock price takes corresponding hikes and plunges. But Apple isn’t the only corporation with similar founder/leader issues. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), ...

Apple Dominant 2008 was the year in which Apple become the dominant vendor of desktop and laptop devices. It was the year in which Microsoft’s monopoly was clearly broken. This was in line with what I expected would happen (see Forecasts for 2008: #3 The PC Market) The latest set of market stats, Net Applications’ December results, [...]

Schaeffer's analyst Colleen S. King takes a look at the major news of the day on Wall Street.

Schaeffer's analyst Colleen S. King takes a look at the major news of the day on Wall Street.

Schaeffer's analyst Colleen S. King takes a look at the major news of the day on Wall Street.

Schaeffer's analyst Colleen S. King takes a look at the major news of the day on Wall Street.

Two Veteran Wall Street Analysts Review the October 10, 2008 Edition of the Value Line Investment Survey