More Than 90 Percent of Wisconsin Homeowners Are Interested in
Home Energy Efficiency, but Many Remain Unaware of Largest Sources of
Energy Consumption and How Their Home Contributes to Climate Change
Based off the last news reports, without Steve Jobs, the multi-billion-dollar enterprise that is Apple (AAPL) would simply cease to exist. Every new report of his health is followed in the market, and Apple’s stock price takes corresponding hikes and plunges.
But Apple isn’t the only corporation with similar founder/leader issues.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), ...
The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) may be forced to abandon its takeover of Rohm & Haas Co. (ROH) now that a $17.4 billion joint venture with Kuwait’s state-run oil company has been scrapped.
Kuwait’s Petrochemical Industries Co. earlier this week cancelled plans to take a 50% stake in Dow’s plastics unit amid ...
What? Have I lost my mind? Shorting the primary investment vehicle of a man who is considered by many to be the greatest investor of all time?
Well, we shall soon see. In my view 2009 is going to be a very rough year in the financial world. Many analysis, I believe Mr Warren Buffet, included, still really don't get it. They are still talking about America pulling out of the recession sometime during 2009 and on we go to even greater things in investment land.
I fear that many people, even seasoned pros like Buffet, are still underestimating the beast that has us in its claws. This is a super cycle to the downside. Scores of years of improperly evaluating risk, of improperly allocating capital, and of mispricing investments of all sorts, has to be and will be corrected.
The best efforts of the hard working Ben Benanke, Wall Street's best friend, Hank Paulson, and even the new hoped for savior, Barack Obama, will be like spiting into a 100 mile an hour headwind. The blowback is going to be impossible to avoid.
Warren Buffet's style of investing has served him well over the past decades. But perhaps it is his own professionalism and investing style that is about to cause him and his investors grief. Bottom fishing for solid companies, then buying the chosen few and holding on is one thing. However, trying to guess and to time the bottom of a super down cycle is all together another. The downdraft will likely last much longer then you first think.
Companies that are well managed and that had excellent prospects will be dragged down by the firestorm of further deleveraging and panic that 2009 will bring. While it is true that the way to investment riches often is to buy when there is blood in the streets the challenge of that approach in the coming panic is that the blood may be your own and of those companies that you have prematurely positioned in your portfolio.
While I am not forecasting the end of the world I am forecasting the end of the old world and of the old way of doing business. Do not expect things to go back to "normal" in an energy starved world.
Investment riches will flow to those who invest in companies that find ways of producing value, perhaps those companies that produce those things that are truly needed by the masses, like clean water and new sources of affordable energy. These companies may have to revert to water power as their major source of energy as existing power grids break down.
The old dinosaurs, like GM, Chrysler, Citigroup, and the like will almost surely perish. In regard to BRK.A some reported actions that if true are very unlike Buffet's investment style are sure to cause problems in 2009. Writing naked put options is a risky venture at any time. For the year ahead it looks to me to be reckless. The prospect of losses as stocks totally collapse just couldn't be worth the premium received upfront. .
There's no doubt about it -- times are tough. People are struggling to find work and to pay the bills as the value of their homes and savings dwindle. The poor get poorer, and the rich get richer.
Or do they? It's all relative, of course, but world's billionaires have been taking some big hits too. We take a look at Sheldon Adelson, Kirk Kerkorian, and Lakshmi Mittal in their own separate posts, but here are some other billionaires who have lost billions this year (courtesy of Forbes and Business Sheet).
Brothers Anil and Mukesh Ambani of India's private conglomerate Reliance lost $32.5 billion and $28.2 billion, respectively.
Warren Buffett, the Sage of Omaha, lost $16.5 billion. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) are down about 32% since the beginning of the year.
Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen lost $12.3 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, while CEO Steve Balmer lost $6.5 billion. Shares of Microsoft are down 46% since the beginning of the year.
Larry Page and Sergey Brin, cofounders of Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG), lost $11.9 billion and $11.7 billion, respectively, and CEO Eric Schmidt lost $3.8 billion. The share price of Google has fallen 55% since the beginning of the year.
Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), lost $8.2 billion. Shares of Oracle are down 21% since the beginning of the year.
Media maven Sumner Redstone lost $7.2 billion. Shares of his private investment firm National Amusements fell 70% this year.
Last week, investors anxiously awaited earnings announcements from both banking giants Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). These reports gave Wall Street a good look at the progress of both companies in their transformation from investment banks to commercial banks. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley gained 19.18% and 11.55% on ...
Warren Buffett said on Friday 'he plans to increase foreign earnings' at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Public, NYSE:BRK.A). Masters, go ask Mom and Dad for that extra $136,000 and go buy a share. Did you get it yet? While you wait on that, let's listen to words of wisdom from the best investor in the world.
"At Berkshire, we will attempt to further increase our stream of direct and indirect foreign earnings," Buffett said in his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders.
"So far, at least, a plunging dollar has not done much to bring our trade activity into balance," he wrote. "Our legislators should recognize the current imbalances are unsustainable and should therefore adopt policies that will materially reduce them sooner rather than later."
"This is our doing, not some nefarious plot by foreign governments," Buffett said. "Our trade equation guarantees massive foreign investment in the U.S. When we force-feed $2 billion daily to the rest of the world, they must invest in something here. Why should we complain when they choose stocks over bonds?"
Amen brother. So what has Warren been buying outside of the states?
In 2006, when Berkshire paid $4 billion for a controlling stake in an Israeli company, Iscar Metalworking Cos. He's got $2.14 billion in South Korean steelmaker Posco (005490.KS), $1.58 billion in French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis SA (SASY.PA) and $2.16 billion in British retailer Tesco Plc (TSCO).
Remeber that $3.3 billion stake in PetroChina Co (601857.SS), was sold last year, that allowed him to buy a few hotdogs.
Fellow Masters, quit fighting the current, if you buy and U.S. stock, make sure it has an international presence. There's a ton of stocks trading that have been beaten black and blue that make big money overseas, Crocs Inc. (CROX) comes to mind. Looking for a safe bet? Try Caterpillar Inc. (Public, NYSE:CAT) at $73 a share and a 36 Cent dividend.
The consolidation and bulk investing in the sector has begun and is now accelerating.
Here's the list of Financials worth further evaluation:
- Citigroup (C) getting $7.5 billion from Abu Dhabi and most likely $14 billion more from Singapore's GIC - the Government of Singapore Investment Corp or Prince Alwaheed or China. Point is someone wants to give them billions.
- Bank of America (BAC) buying Countrywide (CFC)
- JP Morgan (JPM) possibly buying Washington Mutual (WM)
- Bears Sterns (BSC) and CITIC exchanged stakes
- Merrill Lynch (MER) received $5 billion from Singapore's Temasek and may be getting more soon.
- News from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) is that they may partner or buy a bond insurer like MBIA (MBI) or Ambac (ABK)
So does this means the financials index (XLF)has nowhere to go but up? No, there may be a little more downside from here. It does mean that there will not be much more significant downside though. Currently trading at a 5 year low the sector as a whole is vastly oversold.
Disclosure:Long Citi, None in others
Todd Sullivan writes the ValuePlays Newsletter on sale at WallStNewsletters.com for only $45 a year, it's published every month and its also available as part of the Full Monte - 7 Newsletters for only $130 a year. The FULL MONTE newsletters are done by The Stockmasters, (Todd Sullivan) ValuePlays, the Peridot Capitalist (Chad Brand), Timothy Sykes, Jelly Roll Capital Stock Reports (James Cullen), and Steve Reeves.