If you've been reading my stuff for the past few years, then you've been ahead of the real estate pack every step of the way. I warned you well in advance that the housing market would implode ... that the mortgage industry would collapse ... and that virtually ...[More...]

Anytime I see a well-written article by another college student, I pay extra attention. Such is the case with Naufal Sanaullah’s piece on why he thinks this recent rally is unsustainable. It’s quite a comprehensive bearish argument, with good points about the technical aspects of trading and a number of shots at the accuracy of last quarter’s bank earnings – and it will also serve as a good starting point for me to assess my own view of where the market is going. Still, I couldn’t help but be struck by the conspiracy-heavy undertones (most of which were backed by links to Zero Hedge – which provides a lot of thought-provoking pieces, none of them ever being positive). I’m not going to argue on points about CDS trades with AIG, because there are[More...]

We recently reviewed Net Income (ex. Special Items) & Common Dividends for a list of 86 financial institutions in the S&P500 and made the following observations: The market value of equity has been reduced by ~ 65% since 2006 (from $2.66T on 12/29/08 to $945B on 4/24/09). The Financial Sector lost $173B (Net Income to Common ex. SI) in 2008 ($251B loss if Special Items are considered). Over 50% of the firms (44) have lowered dividends in 2009. The Financial Sector lowered Common Dividends by 68% or $41.4B ($19.9B in 2009 vs. $61.4B in 2008). 20 out of 86[More...]

Geithner Says He May Oust Executives at Banks Needing `Exceptional’ Aid - hmmm, I don’t trust this soundbite that he made on Face the Nation, note how Geithner makes this prospective, something that would only be done with banks that get in trouble in the future: “If in the future, banks need exceptional assistance in order to get through this, then we will make sure that assistance comes… Where that requires a change in management and the board, then we will do that.” It could be the administration is floating another trial balloon, to see how that goes over publicly and within the bankster community. Geithner said the Obama administration has no intention of letting banks get around the rules. “Our obligation is to apply the laws that Congress just passed,” he said. Hmmm,[More...]

Welcome to the "Post-Wall Street Meltdown (PWSM)" world of investing. It feels like "the eye of the hurricane" after we were leveled by the the front-end of this "perfect storm."[More...]

Visit StreetInsider.com at http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=4406678 for the full story.

FRONTLINE investigates the causes of the worst economic crisis in 70 years and how the government responded. The film chronicles the inside stories of the Bear Stearns deal, Lehman Brothers’ collapse, propping up of insurance giant AIG, and the $700 billion bailout known as TARP. To be aired starting tomorrow, producer Michael Kirk goes behind closed [...]

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Sometimes equity investors have a habit of overlooking the bond/credit markets. But in times like these, when credit markets are tight, the states of corporate balance sheets become more important than ever and it becomes imperative for all equity investors to watch and understand the credit markets. Take Suncor Energy (TSE: SU) for example. SU was Canada’s favourite oil and gas stock from 2004 – 2007. It is one of Canada’s largest oil and gas stock (by market cap), it produces almost 300,000 Boe/d, earns over $2 billion per year, and has probably the most ambitious plans for the Albert Oil Sands – plans that were originally estimated to cost ~$6 billion. Now that oil prices have tumbled by over 70%, oil and gas companies like[More...]

Two firms are out cautious/negative on CME Group (NYSE:CME): - Sanford Bernstein downgrades CME to Market Perform saying they will re-evaluate 2009-12 future volume growth rate estimates based on revised outlook for the macroeconomic and financial markets and our reduced reliance on their regression-based future volume forecasts, which have broken down over the past 2 quarters. New price tgt is $200 for CME (and $80 for ICE which is also discussed in the note). The biggest concern they have with regards to the CME is the weakening volumes the firm has seen in its interest rate futures complex. The credit markets have undergone a structural shift during the past 6-12 months in which securitization volumes[More...]

BOSTON, Jan. 14 (UPI) -- Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin has filed suit against Reserve Management Co., claiming it falsely assured investors their money was safe.

LONDON, Jan. 13 (UPI) -- Merrill Lynch staffers in Britain said the combined British workforce with the investment firm and new owner Bank of America would be cut by 30 percent.

The private-equity arm of failed Wall Street brokerage Lehman Brothers has reached a deal to be spun out as an independent entity, according to a media report Thursday.

Visit StreetInsider.com at http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=4269742 for the full story.

NEW YORK, Jan. 1 (UPI) -- Six years of accumulated wealth in U.S. stock markets vanished in 2008 as a sustained bull market turned bearish and violent, records show.

By MARTIN SIEFF WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- The much criticized -- and usually with good reason -- U.S. news media missed or underreported a lot of big stories in 2008. Half the stories that UPI lists as the most neglected or "lost" of 2008 were in Latin America and Africa -- entire continents that have dropped off the map as far as the national U.S. media are concerned.