Yale study predicts huge increase in Ebola cases in Liberia

NEW HAVEN, Conn., Oct. 24 (UPI) -- A study by the Yale University School of Public Health suggests a massive increase in Ebola virus cases will affect Liberia within weeks.

A mathematical model of the disease by a group from Yale, working with the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in Liberia, was applied to Liberia's most populous county, Montserrado, which includes the capital city of Monrovia. As many as 170,996 cases of the disease, with 90,122 deaths in Montserrado alone, were projected by Dec. 15. Those figures reported and unreported cases. Of those figures, researchers expect that only 42,669 cases and 27,175 deaths will be officially reported by Dec. 15.

The report, published in the scholarly magazine The Lancet Infectious Disease, said the international response to the Ebola virus thus far is "grossly inadequate," that the window of opportunity for "timely control of the outbreak" has closed and that the "risk for catastrophic devastation both in West Africa and beyond might have only just begun."

"Our results suggest transmission of Ebola virus will not be curtailed without much greater commitment to improvement of all preventative measures. Our predictions suggest that (international) commitments are grossly inadequate to provide beds for infected individuals."

Dr. David Fisman of the university of Toronto, who reviewed the report prior to its publication, commented, "The reason I thought this was such an important article is that it very elegantly makes the point that, as we wait for action on Ebola -- because this is an epidemic that's growing very, very fast -- that means we get not just more new cases, but exponentially more new cases with every passing week. Imagine putting your money in an investment where your money is growing by 50 percent every two weeks. That would be wonderful. What we have with Ebola is an epidemic that is growing like that."