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S. Korea sees trouble ahead: a low birthrate

It faces a future of fewer workers and a large elderly population.

By Ed Adamczyk
A child is raised up in a crowd in Seoul, South Korea on August 18, 2014. File/UPI/Keizo Mori
A child is raised up in a crowd in Seoul, South Korea on August 18, 2014. File/UPI/Keizo Mori | License Photo

SEOUL, Oct. 23 (UPI) -- South Korea's future includes a smaller and older population because of one of the world's lowest birthrates and no encouragement of immigration.

Statistics Korea, the government data and analysis center, predicts the country's population, now at 50 million, will decline to 34 million to 44 million, with only 20 percent under age 30 and 50 percent over 60, by 2060.

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"This is a very serious concern," said In-jin Yoon, immigration specialist at Seoul's Korea University. "Parents are not having enough children to sustain the population, and we are not bringing in immigrants to replace the children who are not being born."

Despite its dynamism and prosperity, South Korea's birthrate is 1.2, compared to the 2.1 births-per-mother needed to sustain the population. While the birthrate of many developed countries is lower than 2.1, it is typically supplemented by immigration, something South Korea does not encourage because of pride in its ethnicity and shared culture.

South Korea thus faces a future in which fewer workers will pay taxes, the elderly will need to be cared for in large numbers and a standing army will be difficult to recruit. Policymakers must also cope with a current population in which young, educated workers prefer careers to parenthood.

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Kim Young-nam of the Korean women's Development Institute told the Korea Herald, "The birthrate is low here because people either get married late or don't get married, and the reason behind that has a lot to do with the housing and employment situation the young people face today. Many feel that they are not financially stable enough to get married or raise a child."

Some regard the solution to be the eventual reunification with impoverished North Korea, with 25 million people, a presumed sooner-or-later event that will bring workers and taxpayers into the economy, although it would not be an easy integration with South Korea.

South Korea thus faces possibilities that include widespread poverty among the elderly, the rocky absorption of isolated North Korea or a potential increase in racial tension through immigration.

"I believe we must talk about the importance of opening up our society, and as we talk we will understand that immigration is not something to fear. It will be difficult, but I believe that people will realize this is our only choice," Yoon said.

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