The poll, released four days before the election, was the last that could be legally published before Israelis vote, The Jerusalem Post reported.
The final Smith Research survey indicated Netanyahu's Likud-Beytenu party would drop one seat, to 33, in the Knesset.
Bayit Yehudi, the poll found, would gain the seat, giving the party 14 representatives.
The poll was taken Wednesday and Thursday for JPost.com. A survey Smith took Tuesday and Wednesday for the Jerusalem Post found Likud holding steady at 34 seats.
If Bayit Yehudi wins the extra seat, it would filled by Jeremy Gimpel, a native of Atlanta.
Gimpel said he would be the first American immigrant elected to the Knesset "in decades."
Likud-Beytenu received the most support from voters younger than 30, with Bayit Yehudi a close second, said pollster Rafi Smith. Virtually no voters younger than 30 supported Tzipi Livni's Hatnuah party.