UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump improves, but Hillary Clinton would win Electoral College

By Allen Cone   |   Oct. 31, 2016 at 10:54 AM
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WASHINGTON, Oct. 31 (UPI) -- UPI/CVoter state poll data released Monday shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump improving in all but one battleground state in the past week, though Democrat Hillary Clinton would still easily win the Electoral College if the election were held today.

According to the 50-plus-1 state-by-state tracking data, Clinton would win the election handily with 341 electoral votes to Trump's 197. It requires 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

The only change from the previous week was Iowa's six electoral votes moved into Trump's column. In that state, the Republican leads by 0.2 percent after trailing by 0.8 the previous week.

If seven toss-up states -- in which a candidate has less than a 3-point lead -- are excluded from the Electoral College count, Clinton would earn 259 electoral votes compared with 191 for Trump. Those 88 toss-up votes would be in Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Ohio. Trump would need to win all of those states except for Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire to become president.

Clinton still leads in 11 of 13 battleground states, which is defined as a candidate leading by less than 5 percentage points at the start of polling.

Besides Iowa, Trump leads in Georgia -- at 5.4 percent, up from 2.4 the previous week.

Clinton's lead dropped in 10 states -- Colorado (4.2 vs. 4.8), Florida (1 vs. 2.4), Michigan (5.3 vs. 6.3), Minnesota (2.8 vs. 3.5), Nevada (1.8 vs. 2.9), New Hampshire (3 vs. 3.7), North Carolina (0.4 vs. 1.9), Ohio (2.4 vs. 3.3), Virginia (3.3 vs. 3.6), Wisconsin (4.2 vs. 4.7).

Her lead only increased in Pennsylvania (4.7 vs. 3.1).

The poll, conducted between Oct. 23-30, tracks 250 likely voters in each state every week, leading to a state representative sample size of 500 voters, leading to about 12,500 interviews every week.

Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated. The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points.

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