UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump gains support in all but 5 states

The projected Electoral College vote count hasn't changed from last week's polls, but Donald Trump is narrowing the margin with Hillary Clinton in several states.
By Stephen Feller   |   Oct. 3, 2016 at 2:30 PM

WASHINGTON, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- Donald Trump gained support in nearly every state in the past week, expanding leads in some and gaining on Hillary Clinton in several other key swing states, a state tracking poll released Monday by UPI/CVoter indicates.

Trump gained support in 45 of the 50 states, as well as in Washington, D.C., with the biggest shifts coming in Idaho, Mississippi and Minnesota, in Monday's release, which includes polling data gathered for the two weeks ending Oct. 2. Trump saw loses in Montana, Rhode Island and Vermont; his numbers were unchanged in North Dakota and Wyoming.

The potential Electoral College vote count has not changed since last week's poll, which includes data gathered the two weeks ending Sept. 25.

Without counting battleground states, where Trump or Clinton have less than a 5-point lead, the candidates are tied in the Electoral College at 191. Including Electoral College votes from swing states, Trump would win the election with 292 electoral college votes to Clinton's 246.

The biggest shifts favoring Republicans this week came in Idaho, where Trump picked up an additional 1.6 percent percent of the vote and Clinton lost 1.1 percent. Trump now leads there by 30.4 percent. In Mississippi, he gained 1.5 percent and Clinton lost 0.9 percent. Trump now leads there by 16.8 percent.

Among swing states, the margin between Trump and Clinton narrowed the most in Colorado, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump now has a 4.5-point lead in North Carolina and a 3.1-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Clinton has a 1.6-point lead in Colorado.

The biggest single shift in the new poll comes in Washington, D.C., where Clinton lost 1.6 points, but still has a significant 64.5-point lead on Trump -- by far the largest margin among individual states. Those Clinton voters appeared to have migrated to the "others" category in the poll, which are voters who declined to pick either Clinton or Trump. "Others" in the district gained 1.5 points.

In the daily nationwide UPI/CVoter tracking poll released Monday, Trump leads Clinton by 2.5 points. The online poll shows Clinton with 46.89 percent, compared with Trump's 49.38 percent.

The state poll was conducted Sept. 19-Oct. 2 among likely voters. The poll is tracking 250 likely voters in each state every week, leading to a state representative sample size of 500 voters. In all, the poll covered about 25,000 samples over two weeks.

Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated. The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points.

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