Advertisement

Bloomberg poll shows Clinton holds edge over Trump with crucial Rust Belt voters

By Eric DuVall
Supporters listen as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Warren, Michigan, on March 4, 2016. Photo by Molly Riley/UPI
Supporters listen as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Warren, Michigan, on March 4, 2016. Photo by Molly Riley/UPI | License Photo

WASHINGTON, May 26 (UPI) -- Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton among middle income voters in Rust Belt states by 7 percentage points, a new poll finds.

The survey, released Thursday by Bloomberg News, represents a major setback, at least initially, as Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, attempts to shake up the electoral map and challenge Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, in states that have been reliably blue in recent elections.

Advertisement

Bloomberg and the polling firm Purple Slice queried self-described likely voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who make between $30,000 and $75,000 per year -- the kind of voters Trump won during the GOP primary, and who he will almost certainly need to win over if he is to repeat that feat in the general election.

The poll finds 46 percent of middle-income voters in those four states support Clinton, compared to 39 percent for Trump. Another 15 percent said they are not sure who they will support in November's election.

Voters who fall into that income range made up more than 40 percent of the electorate in those four states in 2012.

Advertisement

Middle class voters, particularly white ones, would need to turn out in support of Trump if he is to make a serious play for the Great Lakes states.

If Trump were to hold all of Mitt Romney's states from 2012 and add the four states included in the Bloomberg survey to the Republican column, Trump would win the election with exactly the 270 electoral college votes needed.

If not, pollster Doug Usher said Trump may need to revert to a more traditional strategy in order to win the White House, by locking up support in the South and focusing on picking off a few key Midwestern or Western states to reach 270.

"If he can't improve his performance among these working-class voters, he may need to build a more conventional Republican coalition to win," said Usher, who conducted the poll

There are bright spots for Trump. Voters in this income category list a desire for fundamental changes in how government works and the need for more jobs as their most important issues -- and those are the two major issues where these voters say they trust Trump more.

Trump also holds a slim lead among independents, 40 percent to 37 percent over Clinton.

Advertisement

Those two facts combined could suggest Trump has a chance to win over a significant share of the still-undecided voters in this key demographic and make up the difference with Clinton.

A Republican candidate has not won Ohio since George W. Bush in 2004 -- and no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying this important swing state.

Ronald Reagan was the last GOP candidate to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The online poll surveyed 803 likely voters in those four states who earn between $30,000 and $75,000 per year. It was conducted using an opt-in, nationally representative panel. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Latest Headlines