Advertisement

Tropical Storm Erika's forecast track shifts closer to Florida

Upgraded storm is forecast to brush the Atlantic coast of Florida as it curves to the northwest

By Scott Smith
Tropical Storm Erika's forecast track has shifted to the west and closer to Florida. NHC/NOAA
1 of 2 | Tropical Storm Erika's forecast track has shifted to the west and closer to Florida. NHC/NOAA

MIAMI, Aug. 27 (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Erika's forecast track has shifted closer to Florida, but there is "unusuallly high uncertainty" in how strong the storm will be at that time -- late Sunday and Monday.

Erika showed some signs Thursday that it is struggling in the face of strong wind shear and dry air but it caused massive flooding on the island of Dominica, where 4 people were reported killed. Dramatic video showed incredible flash floods tearing through city streets.

Advertisement

Ahead of Erika, tropical storm warnings are in effect in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and now on the northern side of the Dominican Republic.

Antigua Meteorological Service reported 8.8 inches of rain Wednesday night at Canefield Airport.

Erika will move over Puerto Rico early Friday, over the Dominican Republic in the afternoon and enter the Bahamas on Saturday, approaching South Florida and slowing down on Sunday and Monday. Computer models have shown a wide range of options for the storm late in the forecast, leaving its future unclear -- especially as it concerns the effect on Florida and the U.S. East Coast. An aircraft is flying around Erika Thursday evening to get better data on conditions around the storm that could determine if it survives to Saturday.

Advertisement

Forecasters have said if the storm survives until Saturday, it could become much more powerful. A weaker storm would steer into Florida, while a stronger storm would likely veer to the northwest and further up the U.S. East Coast

Radar images of the storm show it is not very organized, with no banding and heavy rainfall only showing up on its eastern half.

Forecasters describe Erika as a "sheared tropical cyclone," partially broken up by strong winds that prevent storm development. Erika faces even stronger shear in the next 36 hours and its future rests on whether it can survive that hurdle.

Erika is currently forecast to become a hurricane early Monday morning with winds of 75 mph off South Florida and continue strengthening to 85 mph as it moves parallel to that state's Atlantic coastline. Erika also could dissipate in the next 36 hours if strong wind shear breaks it apart.

Latest Headlines