J.P. Morgan Chase estimated that ending the cut of 2 percentage points that has reduced the payroll tax to 4.2 percent for the past two years would remove a total of $125 billion in income from paychecks a year, The Wall Street Journal reported. Several economists told the newspaper that would slow growth by half a percentage point in an economy now growing by only 2 percent annually.
Lewis Alexander, a Nomura economist, said that passing a deal and averting the fiscal cliff would give the economy only a short-term boost.
"We continue to anticipate a significant economic slowdown at the start of the year in response to fiscal drag and a contentious fiscal debate," he said.
The deal would end uncertainty about significant increases in taxes on dividends for middle-class investors. But there are other sources of uncertainty, including another round of negotiations on the federal debt limit.