Mason-Dixon Polling & Research surveyed 800 likely voters for The Miami Herald and its Spanish-language publication, the Nuevo Herald. The results, released Friday, showed 51 percent planning to vote for Romney and 46 percent for Obama.
"I'm pretty convinced Romney's going to win Florida," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon told the Herald. "Will it be 5 points? Maybe. Will it be 3 points? Possibly. I don't think it's going to be a recount ... I don't think we're going to have a recount-race here."
Obama carried Florida by almost 3 percentage points in 2008.
The U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount in 2000, giving the state to George W. Bush in a controversial ruling that put him in the White House.
The Mason-Dixon poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday showed Romney with a strong lead among white men while Obama has a slim lead among white women. Romney has greater cross-over appeal to Democrats and leads among independents by 6 points.
Romney gained the lead in Florida after the first presidential debate, where Obama got very poor reviews, Coker said. His overall margin has barely changed in the new poll, although his lead among independents has fallen from 13 points.
The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.