Political scientists project Obama win

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WASHINGTON, Sept. 30 (UPI) -- Of 13 projections made by political scientists, eight say U.S. President Obama will win the popular vote in November while five favor Republican Mitt Romney.

The predictions, published in the new issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, are based on varied statistical models that take economics, approval ratings, the jobs outlook and incumbency into consideration, The Washington Post reported Saturday.

James E. Campbell, department of political science chairman at University at Buffalo, wrote in the introduction to the package of predictions that although Obama is favored in eight of the projections, three are on "the cusp of a toss-up." Three are in the toss-up range in Romney's five predicted wins as well, he added.

Alfred G. Cuzan, department of political science chairman at the University of West Florida, used a fiscal model in his prediction, saying the president's spending policies hurt his chances of winning.

"Even if he does squeeze by the Republican candidate," Cuzan wrote, "it is highly likely that President Obama would do so with a smaller share of the vote than in 2008, the first president in well over a century to be reelected to a second term by a thinner margin of victory than he received the first time around."