CQ Politics reported the big winner under the analysis performed by Election Data Services Inc. will be Texas, which is forecast to pick up four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The situation also became more clear for two states on the bubble. Minnesota now appears unlikely to lose one of its eight seats but Missouri is expected to have to give up one of its nine.
"We had an inkling of the Minnesota/Missouri switch because both states were right on the edge for that last seat in our 2009 study," Election Data Services President Kimball Brace said. "But we were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II."
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington also could gain one seat each.
Ohio also could lose two seats, while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are projected to lose one seat each.
The News Service of Florida reported the study, released at a National Conference of State Legislatures redistricting seminar in Providence, Rhode Island, determined a major factor in population shifts in the states this year is likely to be overseas military personnel returning to the United States, and where they end up.
"Because the United States is currently in the midst of two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (unlike what was occurring at the last apportionment process in 2000), the addition of military and federal workers living abroad are likely to have a more significant affect in 2010," the report said.
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