Politics 2010: The race for Dorgan's seat begin NOW

Little has changed in the likely November scenario in the race to succeed North Dakota's Byron Dorgan in the U.S. Senate.

Neither the Democratic candidate, state. Sen. Tracy Potter, nor the Republican candidate, Gov. John Hoeven, have any competition in Tuesday's primary, so all eyes -- and polls -- are on November.

Dorgan surprised Washington and beyond in January when he announced he would not seek re-election. Before Dorgan announced his departure, a Rasmussen poll pitting him against Hoeven showed the governor with a 22-point lead in a hypothetical Senate match-up.

A mid-May poll showed little change when inserting Potter's name for Dorgan, Rasmussen said. Hoeven earned an eye-popping 72 percent support while Potter picked up 23 percent. Two percent said they favor some other candidate, while 3 percent indicated they were undecided.

Rasmussen said support for Hoeven fluctuates between 68 percent and 71 percent, while Potter's backing hovers between 23 percent and 25 percent.

Potter takes on Hoeven without something Dorgan would have had -- the power of incumbency. Instead, Potter faces an uphill climb against an extremely popular governor in a state trending strongly Republican.

Most political analysts regard the Senate seat in North Dakota as a sure GOP pickup, barring some major surprise.

In another hypothetical Election Day match-up, Republican state Rep. Rick Berg moved past the magical 50 percent mark in support against incumbent Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy in the race for North Dakota's lone congressional seat. Berg, seeking his 10th term, leads Pomeroy 52 percent to 43 percent.

Berg faces a challenge in the primary from oilfield consultant J.D. Donaghe, but most analysts predict Berg should win easily.

John McCain carried North Dakota by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin over Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, and just 41 percent of the state's voters approve of Obama's job performance, compared to 57 percent who told Rasmussen they disapprove of Obama's performance.