Gingrich alters forecast of GOP takeover

WASHINGTON, May 21 (UPI) -- Pennsylvania's special election to fill Rep. John Murtha's seat led former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to revise his forecast on Republicans retaking the House.

Former Murtha aide Mark Critz beat Republican Tim Burns by 8 percentage points, a larger-than-expected advantage, to win the seat left vacant by Murtha's death in February. Critz was sworn in Thursday.

Gingrich said the margin of victory means his party has a 50-50 chance of winning back the House in November, The Hill reported Thursday.

"I would've said more (than 50-50) if they picked up Pennsylvania," Gingrich told The Hill. "I would've said they'd gain 70 seats. Now they're in the 30-to-50-seat range."

Republicans must pick up 39 seats to win a House majority.

Gingrich, the GOP whip when Republicans won the House in 1994, said Republicans must win the close fights to reclaim the House.

"Forcing your way over the top in tough races matters," Gingrich said. "I'm a little concerned we didn't force our way over the top."

Incumbents from both parties are in a "very tough" election environment, Gingrich said, citing the victory of Rand Paul in a Kentucky GOP U.S. Senate primary over a candidate backed mainstream Republicans and the failure of Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, to win his party's backing.