Immigration reform risky for incumbents

WASHINGTON, March 15 (UPI) -- Immigration reform is a double-edged sword for U.S. congressional Democrats because support or opposition both carry risks, observers say.

Failure to enact comprehensive immigration reform could mean Latino voters would stay away in November, while pushing for change could cause voters to turn against reform-minded candidates, The Arizona Republic reported Monday.

"For most elected officials, it's a no-win situation," said John Garcia, a University of Arizona political science professor. "It's just such a volatile and divisive issue."

Thousands of immigration reform activists from across the nation are expected to march on Washington Sunday, demanding action from President Barack Obama and Congress.

"It is showdown time," activist Emma Lozano said recently during a news conference called by Fair Immigration Reform Movement. "If you (Democratic leaders) don't keep your promises, we will leave you where we found you. You have the power. You must use it, or you will lose it."

Such threats may not scare incumbents in swing districts, however, the Republic said. In those districts, Democrats could face counter-threats from groups opposing legislation that would allow illegal immigrants to become citizens.

"The greater risk is turning out (non-Hispanic) white voters against you," said Rodolfo Espino, a political scientist at Arizona State University.

Obama and senior White House officials have been meeting with immigrant-rights groups and congressional members to try to determine whether a bipartisan bill could pass this year.

The president met last week with Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who have been working to craft a bipartisan bill to boost enforcement of immigration laws while creating a path to citizenship for the estimated 10 million to 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States.