Arab revolts jolt Western intelligence

CAIRO, May 31 (UPI) -- The toppling of the pro-Western rulers of Egypt and Tunisia in the Arab Spring upheavals, and the prospect that other authoritarian regimes in the Middle East may fall, has alarmed Western intelligence agencies that have relied on their help in fighting terrorism.

Given Washington's deteriorating relations with Pakistan, a vital partner in the war against al-Qaida, and its powerful Inter-Services Intelligence directorate in particular, any major reduction in intelligence cooperation with key Arab states could be potentially disastrous for the West.

Jordan, a vital U.S. ally in the intelligence war, remains steadfast under King Abdullah II -- for the moment, at least -- as is Saudi Arabia, which has often been problematical.

But Western sources say there has been a marked drop in the flow of intelligence from North African allies in recent months.

This is particularly troublesome for the Europeans, who have hostile forces close by on their southern flank.

"It's fair to say that we're concerned that further instability could affect intelligence exchanges," one source observed.

Key states in this are Egypt and Yemen.

The downfall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, whose regime was a linchpin in intelligence coordination between Arab states and the West, especially the CIA, has resulted in significant changes.

It's still not clear how changes in Egypt's General Intelligence Directorate, which was the main link to Washington, will affect U.S. counter-terrorism operations.

But the military-backed caretaker government that has emerged since Mubarak was toppled Feb. 11 has distanced itself from Israel and its foreign intelligence service, the Mossad, which Mubarak's regime had worked closely since 1979.

Israelis fear the political changes in Egypt signal the re-emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood, the godfather of Islamic radical organizations, and the possibility Islamists will eventually take power.

The Muslim Brotherhood, banned under Mubarak, will compete in parliamentary elections, and possibly a presidential poll as well, this year. In the meantime, more radical groups are also gaining political ground.

Hundreds of jihadist figures have been released from Mubarak's gulag of political prisons since February. Among them were Abdul al-Zamar, a former colonel in military intelligence, and a relative, Tariq al-Zamar, a former major.

They were arrested in September 1981 for involvement in a failed coup against President Anwar Sadat, only 10 days before he was assassinated by Islamist fanatics for making peace with Israel.

Also freed were several senior figures of the Jamaat al-Jihad, the extremist group led by al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Abdul al-Zamar shared a prison cell in Egypt with Zawahiri for a time.

Many more veteran jihadists have been allowed to return from exile abroad, Western intelligence sources say.

Egypt's new intelligence supremo is Maj. Gen. Murad Muwafi. He replaced Gen. Omar Suleiman, who worked closely with Israel and the United States, as head of the GID.

Muwafi, a former Military Intelligence chief, has kept the Israelis at arm's length and played a key role in reconciling the divided Palestinians, much to Israel's chagrin.

He also seems inclined to restore long-strained relations between Egypt and Syria, Iran's key Arab ally.

In Yemen, where one of al-Qaida's most active affiliates has deep roots, President Ali Abdullah Saleh's intelligence services have often been a hindrance as much as a help to the CIA.

One of the main Yemeni intelligence units, the Political Security Organization, has long been considered riddled with al-Qaida sympathizers and would be no great loss should Saleh be forced out, as seems likely.

But with U.S. funding and direction he has created a separate intelligence and counter-terrorism apparatus, largely headed by his relatives, that has worked closely with the Americans to combat al-Qaida.

The word is that Washington is increasingly convinced Saleh's days as president are numbered. So the big question is that if he is toppled by his rivals in the military, will those relatives be brought down, too.

Saleh's rivals wants sweeping changes in the military/intelligence establishment that run counter to what the Americans seek.

"Such changes would be tantamount to unraveling the past decade of U.S. counter-terrorism investment in Yemen that was designed explicitly to raise a new generation of security officials who could hold their own against the Islamist-leaning Old Guard," analyst Reva Bhalla observed in an April 21 analysis for the U.S. security consultancy Stratfor.