WASHINGTON, April 23 (UPI) -- China's voracious appetite for commodities and raw materials may be helping Latin American economic recovery, though doubts persist about Chile after the Feb. 27 earthquake and Argentina and Venezuela over political uncertainties.
The unclear economic outlook for some of the Latin American countries was cited by analysts after the International Monetary Fund published regional assessments prepared by the World Bank for an IMF report on the global financial outlook.
The World Bank said Latin American countries -- particularly Chile, Brazil and Peru -- with closer links to China are likely to leave the 2008-09 economic downturn behind faster than other countries in the region.
Commodity exports already are seen as a major buffer that helped Latin American countries cushion the effects of the economic crisis. Increased Chinese imports of commodities and raw materials have helped that trend to continue and also improved global commodity prices.
Analysts said the upbeat IMF report had to be weighed against Chile's reversal of fortunes after the Feb. 27 earthquake, Argentina's intractable political squabbling impacting on economic prospects and effects of the drought on Venezuela's infrastructure, especially its electricity and water supplies. Also, both are in the process of building stronger trade links with Beijing.
"Those countries which have closer ties with Asia, particularly Southeast Asia and China are those showing the most vigor in their economic recovery," pointed out Augusto de la Torre, World Bank chief economist for Latin America.
Reconstruction efforts and increased external financing requirements to pay for those efforts will turn Chile from capital exporter to importer this year and next, said the Institute of International Finance.
The cost of Chile's natural catastrophe, estimated at $29.7 billion or 18 percent of Chile's gross domestic product, splits evenly between the public and private sectors and is to be absorbed over the next three to four years, said the IIF.
The quake aftermath has raised the financing requirements of Chile's public sector by $9.3 billion -- 5.7 percent of the GDP -- for 2010-13. Financing needs, however, are likely to be higher in 2010 and 2011 because of reconstruction, the IIF said.
Chile's need for higher earnings from China is therefore paramount, analysts said.
Chinese President Hu Jintao was to visit Chile this month after a trip to Brazil but cut short his Latin tour because of an earthquake in China. The Chinese public and private sectors, however, are actively seeking new deals in Latin America, many to do with increased imports of energy, commodities and minerals.
The impact of China business contrasts with slow recovery in countries with weaker trade links with Beijing, although the reasons may be complex.
De la Torre named Mexico, a country with more links to the United States than with China, which had seen slow growth.
Chile exports more to China than to the United States or to Europe. Besides Brazil and Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Uruguay are also seeking trade and investment opportunities with China.
De la Torre said China's influence was evident not only in bilateral trade but also through its impact on commodity prices. Latin America is a large exporter of commodities and 93 percent of the region's population lives in countries that benefit directly when international prices of farm produce and minerals increase.
