MOGADISHU, Somalia, Feb. 4 (UPI) -- War-torn Somalia seems to be headed for a new spasm of bloodshed as al-Shebab, the main Islamist faction that is aligned with al-Qaida, has been strengthened by merging with one of its main militia rivals while another fell apart.
This is likely to signal a new offensive by al-Shebab -- short for Harakat al-Shebab al-Mujahedin, or Warrior Youth Movement -- against the Transitional Federal Government, which is backed by the United Nations and the West.
There are still divisions among the various militias and clans opposed to the TFG, even within the leadership of al-Shebab, and these are all that is preventing the administration's collapse.
The government in Mogadishu depends on a 4,500-strong African Union peacekeeping force, known as Amisom, for its survival.
But it is all that this force -- poorly trained, and ill equipped and too small to be effective -- can do to protect the few blocks of downtown Mogadishu and the airport that the TFG claims to control.
The peacekeepers, mainly from Uganda and Burundi, are highly unpopular because every time they are attacked by the Islamists they shell civilian areas indiscriminately, causing heavy casualties.
Foreign security firms have been hired to provide protection for government ministers, but these have not proven to be particularly effective.
In July two French agents assigned to guard the TFG president, Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, were abducted by the Islamists. One escaped, but the other remains in militant hands.
The shaky TFG's dependence on Somalia's traditional clan rivalries preventing a united front against it may be unraveling.
On Feb. 1 al-Shebab announced that the Ras Kamboni Brigade, a clan-based militia in southern Somalia, was merging with it.
That was a blow to al-Shebab's main rival, Hizb-ul Islam, with whom Ras Kamboni had been allied.
The new alliance underlines al-Shehab's growing influence, particularly in the southwest, where Hizb-ul Islam's standing has been steadily eroding around the key towns of Baidoa and Kismayo some 300 miles south of Mogadishu.
According to military analysts, Hizb-ul Islam has ceased to exist as a potent fighting force.
That may give some comfort to the beleaguered TFG. But al-Shebab's military and logistic organization is reported to have improved in recent months, particularly since the failure of its last major attempt to topple the TFG in May 2009.
The TFG has been bragging that it plans to launch an offensive against al-Shebab beyond the confines of Mogadishu, but that appears to be an idle boast.
For the time being, the TFG can only encourage clan leaders opposed to al-Shebab to move against them.
Al-Shebab's main adversary right now is Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jamaa militia in central Somalia.
This is backed by neighboring Ethiopia, which invaded Somalia with U.S. backing in December 2006 to drive out a short-lived Islamist government and install the TFG.
Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jamaa was established when the Ethiopian military withdrew from Somalia in January 2009 as a means for Addis Ababa to contain the Islamist threat on its border.
Al-Shebab and the Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jamaa, whose fighters are more moderate Sufi Muslims, clashed inconclusively around the central town of Dusa Marreb in January.
Al-Shebab has seized several areas in the south and center, but analysts differ over whether it has the strength or popularity to take over the country and impose its strict version of Islamic law.
U.S. and other Western intelligence services say al-Shebab has a large number of foreign jihadists in its ranks and is backed by al-Qaida. But that remains questionable.
It undoubtedly has some non-Somali fighters, but it is not thought these number more than a few score at most. Still, the West is concerned that Somalia is becoming a haven for international terrorists and that al-Qaida cadres from Afghanistan and Pakistan are moving into the region.
Many of al-Shebab's leaders are radical Somali veterans of the wars in Afghanistan. In 2008 Ahmed Abdi Godane, aka Abu Zubeyr, became its top commander. He has been described as a "hardcore jihadist."
On Feb. 2 al-Shebab declared for the first time that it has formally aligned with al-Qaida. It said in a statement that the "jihad of the Horn of Africa must be combined with the international jihad led by the al-Qaida network."
