Iran's opposition strong, but lacks unity

WASHINGTON, Dec. 29 (UPI) -- The so-called Green Movement in Iran is gaining strength and energy, but lacks the cohesion necessary to wage a full-scale revolution, a scholar notes.

Supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi have rallied around his Green Path of Hope political front, using government holidays to stage some of the most violent protests in Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrators acted out in the face of a brutal crackdown by the clerical regime in Iran, which responded with deadly force and sweeping arrests in an effort to quiet the opposition movement.

Robin Wright, a senior fellow at the congressionally funded U.S. Institute of Peace, said that the opposition movement that emerged in the wake of contested June presidential elections shows signs of durability.

"Nothing has so far been able to stop the movement," she told the Council on Foreign Relations.

Nevertheless, with scores of opposition leaders under arrest and several others under close scrutiny by Iranian authorities, the Green Movement lacks the cohesion necessary to spark a full-scale revolution.

Wright, who covered the 1979 revolution as a journalist, warned disunity and a broad-based list of complaints could threaten the opposition movement if it manages somehow to succeed.

"We have not yet seen a unified call that would amount to a counter-revolution," she said. "That's not what this is about so far. It may become that, but it isn't there yet."