Tough call on Iranian reform, scholar says

WASHINGTON, Dec. 9 (UPI) -- Despite the durability of the Iranian opposition, it would be naive to make any predictions about the livelihood of the clerical regime, a U.S. analyst said.

Iran was hit with massive street demonstrations in protest of the disputed victory for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June elections, paving the way for a so-called Green Revolution.

Despite a major crackdown on the opposition movement, demonstrators have taken advantage of national holidays to voice their dissent more than three months after the election protests.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it is difficult to determine what effect, if any, the opposition will have on Tehran.

"Just as nobody predicted that millions would take to the streets post-election," he told the policy center Middle East Progress, "it's a fool's errand to try and foretell how this might play out."

Sadjadpour said that Tehran and the opposition were in a "precarious" situation, with the clerical regime in a noted decline and a reform movement with no clear alternative to the status quo.

Nevertheless, the resiliency of the opposition in the face of violent suppression may bring eventual surprises, as was witnessed in June.

"I think the opposition could remain on simmer for quite some time -- years even -- but we could reach a tipping point that could change things quite abruptly," concluded Sadjadpour.