A Kurdish spoiler in Iraq?

WASHINGTON, June 29 (UPI) -- Ankara and the Kurdish government in Iraq have bolstered ties recently, though Washington needs stout diplomacy to avoid a violent reversal, analysts say.

Partly due to a common threat from the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, Ankara and the Kurdistan Regional Government have improved relations in the years following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Trade is expected to soar to $20 billion next year, and roughly 80 percent of all Kurdish imports come from Turkey.

But issues remain that threaten the fragile relationship between the two governments. The lack of a national hydrocarbon law could harm trade relations with Turkey while lingering disputes over regional authority could undermine any civility, possibly leading to violence, notes David Phillips, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Meanwhile, tensions could re-emerge during the political maneuvering ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled July 25 for the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.

Phillips writes that Ankara should recognize its concerns over the PKK and regional Kurdish ambitions are not simply military matters, adding the "ultimate solution" may lie in political settlements.

On the part of Washington, renewed conflict between Ankara and Erbil could unravel any gains made by the U.S. presence in Iraq, undermining any political capital in Washington at a time when the region needs it most.