DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, June 26 (UPI) -- A strike by Iranian oil workers would put pressure on the conservative government, but the impact on the global crude market would be minimal, analysts say.
Iran witnessed nearly two weeks of bloody protests in the wake of the disputed June 12 election that saw Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad secure a second term.
With the clerical regime in Iran cracking down hard on opposition leaders, dissidents may lack the coordination needed to wage an effective strike, notes Robin Mills, a Dubai-based energy economist.
Mills, writing in Emirati newspaper The National, notes that Iran is declining in terms of its oil influence, producing just over 3 percent of the world crude volumes, with most of that going toward domestic consumption.
Meanwhile, global energy demand forecasts are weak amid the economic sea change in the post-recession climate. While Iran has shown durability in terms of domestic energy, its export environment may continue to stagger.
With several analysts pointing to the energy crunch in the 1980s as a sign of things to come as the Iranian political turmoil plays out, Mills notes those fears may be unfounded.
"Events of the past two weeks might awaken such memories," he writes, "but the oil markets, it seems, are content to doze."
