Iranian revolt shows deep divide

WASHINGTON, June 22 (UPI) -- The violent squashing of dissent on the streets of Tehran may be the opening salvo of a durable challenge to the clerical regime, an analysis suggests.

Amateur media footage of the events unfolding in Iran in the wake of disputed June 12 presidential elections show Basij paramilitary forces roaming the streets on motorcycles, armed with batons. Various reports claim these same forces are firing on street protesters.

The violence unfolds as Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned during Friday prayers of "bloodshed" if the mass protests continued, sanctioning Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the victor.

The same commanders, however, who refused to turn their weapons on the Iranian people during unrest in the 1990s backed Mahmoud Khatami overwhelmingly in the polls, and unverified media reports suggest student protesters are encouraging the security forces to join their ranks.

This, says a review of the situation by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggests the divisions emerging in Iran are deep-seated within Iranian society.

The clerical and ruling elites have so far favored arresting opposition leaders and attacking street protesters rather than directly challenging the opposition.

"This approach," the WINEP review says, "has not succeeded in slowing the momentum of the opposition protests."