Maliki needs coalition in Basra; Warlords eyed in Afghanistan

Maliki seeks coalition in Basra

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is courting parties in the southern Basra province to form a ruling coalition despite victories in the January elections.

Maliki and his State of Law Party won major concessions in the January provincial elections. In Basra, State of Law won 20 of the 35 seats.

Despite the victory in the south, party leaders told the Iraqi political Web site Niqash.org that they would reach out to others in Basra to form the provincial government.

"There are intentions to involve candidates who lost elections in the local administration of Basra's government," said Shiltagh Abboud Sharad, the leader of State of Law in Basra.

Meanwhile, Maliki may need to form a coalition in Basra to dilute any public criticism from a looming economic crisis in Iraq amid declining oil revenues.

Political rivals in the Sunni camp said Maliki won major public backing in Basra in the wake of a 2008 assault on Shiite militants but lacks the overwhelming support needed from local leaders.

Among Shiites, the rival Shiite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council seems content to form an independent voice in the wake of the elections, while members of the polemic Fadhila Party have expressed a willingness to join Maliki in an effort to maintain influence.

"We are ready to enter into a coalition with the State of Law coalition and with other forces according to their programs," said Jaber Khalifah Jaber, a Fadhila lawmaker.

UNHCR assists resettlement of 122 Iraqi refugees

More than 100 Iraqi refugees from minorities facing persecution or other extenuating circumstances left camps in Syria and Jordan for resettlement in Germany.

The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said the first group of 122 refugees left for Germany from Damascus, Syria, on a plane specifically chartered for the purpose.

The UNHCR report said the refugees were chosen from targeted or persecuted minority groups, including religious groups and a man who survived a kidnapping.

The European Union in November had called on its members to settle up to 10,000 refugees in 2009. Berlin responded by offering refuge to 2,000 Iraqis displaced to Syria and 500 from Jordan.

"UNHCR supports a humanitarian resettlement program which responds to the needs of the most vulnerable individuals," the office said.

Germany last opened up to refugees in the 1980s, taking in Vietnamese asylum-seekers. Germany joins 15 other countries that have come forward with assistance programs for Iraqi refugees since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

The U.N. estimates there are more than 60,000 refugees pursuing resettlement in the region, with the bulk of them living in Jordan and Syria.

January elections were no panacea for Iraq

A political climate may emerge in Baghdad following the December parliamentary elections that could sustain Iraq's post-sectarian trends, an analysis shows.

American, Iraqi and international observers point to the bustling campaign season that led up to the January provincial elections as a sign Iraq was re-emerging as an independent nation following six years of brutal war.

But a review by Iraqi analysts and professionals organized by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs said it would be the December parliamentary elections that will solidify Iraq's identity in the world.

The report said the international community can play a positive role in the coming election cycle in Iraq by recognizing that the U.S.-sponsored agenda has not consistently supported domestic ideals, and it called for an agenda that fosters a climate for debate about the Iraqi political system.

A key factor in settling political disputes lies in resolving issues between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq. The Iraqi analytical site historiae.org points to studies that suggest Iraq would be best served by finding comprehensive solutions to regional and federal disputes between both governments.

"Perhaps what many Iraqis now want from the outside world is most of all that these issues that relate to Iraq's political system are allowed to remain on the agenda and are not swept under the carpet in uncritical jubilation for the drop in violence (and the new attention to Afghanistan)," Reidar Visser wrote on historiae.org.

Warlords prompt skepticism in Afghan strategy

Washington looks to support the 17,000-strong troop surge in Afghanistan with civilian efforts at courting former warlords to deter Taliban influence.

U.S. and Afghan officials are looking to influential provincial warlords to help build up domestic structures in support of the Kabul government with the goal of establishing a bulwark against the growing strength of the Taliban.

Critics worry that strategy will undermine efforts to strengthen the central government as many of these warlords have a reputation for corruption and violence, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Meanwhile, analysts and some officials in the Afghan government say a loose network of federal regions could provide for a stronger Afghanistan in line with national historic trends.

U.S. officials, for their part, are looking for potential leaders who can bring stability to the country while eradicating problems from the opium trade, rather than seeking out piety among the warlords.

The Journal report points to Gul Agha Shirzai, the provincial governor in Nangarhar, as an example of a former warlord with a track record of reconstruction and taking on Taliban insurgents.

U.S. officials in Afghanistan said Shirzai exemplifies the complications of courting warlords, worrying he is more chieftain than lawmaker.

"As long as security is the No. 1 priority, you can say he's successful," U.S. Army Lt. Col. William Fitch told the Journal. "In terms of democracy, I don't think anyone can say for sure that we're going to make much more headway with him in place."

Budget woes complicate Afghan troops

The massive budget needed to finance planned increases to Afghan national forces adds to the complications already haunting Washington's new strategy in the country.

U.S. officials look to increase the size of Afghan national forces to around 400,000 as part of the broader security effort in the embattled country. American officials estimate that effort may cost upward of $2 billion, which far surpasses even the most optimistic predictions for Afghanistan's economic abilities, Time magazine reports.

Stephen Biddle with the Council on Foreign Relations said that while the increase in Afghan troop numbers would provide short-term gains, Kabul may be unable to cope with the financial burden of the added troops.

"The Afghan government is very unlikely to be able to pay these costs itself even if we make optimistic assumptions about economic growth and government revenue-extraction potential," he said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed reservations over the durability of that strategy, saying that once the security situation stabilizes and the funding halts, a new security situation could emerge.

"The result could easily be a postwar Afghan security force too large to pay and also too large to demobilize safely," he said.

Afghan effort needs political will

The international effort in Afghanistan lacks sufficient resources and political capital needed for sustainability despite renewed attention, a U.N. envoy said.

The U.N special envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, said that renewed focus on rebuilding institutions in the war-torn country while placing security as a top priority are commendable efforts, but it is political will that is limiting development there.

Eide told the U.N. Security Council that while the security situation is the immediate focus in Afghanistan, long-term sustainability will only come through political and economic growth, the U.N. News Service reports.

"The sense of ownership is crucial -- for the strength of the government in the eyes of its public, for its confidence in itself and, ultimately, for our success in defeating the insurgency," he said.

His comments come as the international community prepares for a major summit on Afghanistan scheduled for March 31 at The Hague, Netherlands. The special envoy said the summit was an opportunity to get to work on solving problems in Afghanistan.

"It is an occasion for us to push the doom-and-gloom atmosphere aside, roll up our sleeves and support the positive trends that we now see emerging in Afghanistan," he said.

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