Iraqi political outlook grim, scholar says

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10 (UPI) -- The growing sentiment that the mission in Iraq has succeeded with the passage of a bilateral security accord with Washington is misplaced, a scholar says.

Iraq passed a measure providing the framework for the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq no later than Dec. 31, 2011, with a June public referendum possibly moving that date forward.

Kenneth Pollack, an Iraq analyst with the Brookings Institution, told the Council on Foreign Relations that Iraq is far from stable. Despite positive gains in the security environment, the political scenario in Baghdad remains tense as power is becoming increasingly centralized around Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"There are people who believe that he deliberately intends to make himself a dictator," Pollack said.

Meanwhile, Maliki is looking to court his former foes, the Sadrist Movement of Moqtada Sadr, in an effort to sideline the influential Shiite party the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which in turn is looking to solidify its base by backing Kurdish interests in the country.

Both groups are looking to consolidate their power as Iraq prepares for provincial elections in January, which could redefine the balance of power in the country.

"The next year or 18 months is going to be absolutely critical for the development of Iraqi politics," Pollack cautioned.