New president, better U.S.-Russian ties?

BERLIN, Nov. 3 (UPI) -- Electing Barack Obama U.S. president could turn around the troubled U.S.-Russian relations, Russia experts say.

Over the past two years U.S.-Russian relations suffered because of a series of security conflicts, ranging from NATO's eastward expansion, Western recognition of Kosovo's independence, U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Europe and, most recently, Russia's military campaign in Georgia.

"It really is a difficult time right now in U.S.-Russia relations," Paul Saunders, executive director of the Nixon Center and one of its senior Russia experts, told United Press International Monday in a telephone interview.

What America faces Tuesday has already happened in Russia: The country just elected a new president. It chose Dmitry Medvedev, a man handpicked by his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, but also one who experts credit with a willingness to transform Russia into a more democratic state.

As President George W. Bush's relations with the Kremlin remain troubled, a new U.S. president could certainly improve bilateral relations between the former Cold War enemies.

Most experts say Obama has the greater potential of reviving U.S.-Russian ties.

Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said both Obama, 47, and Medvedev, 43, because of their age, are less ideologically charged than Obama's opponent, John McCain.

"Medvedev and Obama belong to the same generation, a generation that knows the Soviet Union only from childhood," Rahr told United Press International in a telephone interview Monday. "So with Obama as U.S. president, there is the chance of a real restart for U.S.-Russian relations."

Rahr warned, however, that Obama should not press Russia too openly and aggressively on human rights -- such moves have only backfired so far, he said.

Saunders, of the Nixon Center, a non-partisan think tank in Washington, said while Obama "hasn't said a great deal about Russia and doesn't have a huge, long record in dealing with Russia, his rhetoric on foreign policy seems to be one of engagement rather than confrontational."

McCain also has the potential of improving relations with Russia -- mainly because of the Republican's willingness to come up with a major U.S.-Russian deal on arms control, Saunders said.

U.S.-Russian arms control and anti-nuclear proliferation measures have slowed down since NATO's eastward expansion and U.S. plans to build missile defense systems in North America and Eastern Europe.

The third Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START III, was meant to drastically reduce the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States, but it failed to be passed after Washington withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty; instead, START III was superseded by the much weaker Moscow Treaty, which came into force five years ago and runs until 2012.

Washington recently hammered out agreements with the Czech Republic and Poland over placing U.S. radar systems and defense missiles in these countries; the security move has infuriated Moscow, and either president will have to deal with the future of the controversial system.

McCain has been "very specific that he would go ahead with missile defense, no matter" what Russia thinks, Saunders said.

However, the Republican candidate has shown willingness to "try to talk to Russia about transparency and confidence-building" to get the Kremlin to tolerate the project, the expert added.

Obama hasn't said he would stop the program, but Democrats in Congress are much more skeptical regarding the true merits of the system.

And don't expect Russia to uniformly hope for an Obama victory -- with the race for the White House heading into the final hours, even Russians are divided over who to pick as their favorite, Rahr said.

There are forces in Moscow that wish for a Republican president -- Rahr calls them the "nationalistic lobby" -- because such a person would represent a "clear counterweight" to the Kremlin, much as during the Cold War.

"A U.S. president that continues to push for NATO's eastward expansion and a missile defense system in Eastern Europe would give these nationalistic forces more backing, and that's why they are hoping for McCain to win," Rahr said.

The remainder of the Kremlin hopes for "more pragmatism and more good will toward Russia," Rahr said. "They want Obama to win, and wouldn't hesitate to show up in Washington, once he is elected, to see if relations can be improved."