Tehran's influence waning, analyst says

WASHINGTON, Sept. 25 (UPI) -- Recent sentiments from leading figures in Iraq and Lebanon suggest a migration away from Iran-centered politics in the Levant, an analyst says.

David Schenker, director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, writes in The New Republic that recent statements from Iraqi Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and diplomatic overtures from Lebanon suggest political power in the region is moving away from Iran.

Schenker points to statements made in July by the revered cleric that Iraqi Shiites should cast their votes in the 2009 provincial elections for whichever slate or candidate presents the best platform. In the 2005 elections, by contrast, Sistani advocated the United Iraqi Alliance.

This move to plurality could point to a decision by Sistani to counter Iranian hegemony in the region, Schenker notes.

Meanwhile, calls from Lebanese lawmaker Saad Hariri, son of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, urged broader "Arabism" in the region as a bulwark against Persian dominance.

While Lebanese Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have emerged as powerful political forces in Beirut with the support of Iran, many Iraqi Shiites look to Sistani, not the clerics in Iran, for leadership.

Lebanese Shiites, Schenker says, do not look to Tehran for the leadership that the Hezbollah dominance suggests, and the recent political climate in Baghdad and Najaf suggests Iraq may follow suit.