October surprise?

WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 (UPI) -- Al-Qaida is keen to launch attacks on anniversaries and other significant calendar events, making a minor "October surprise" possible, an analyst says.

Steve Coll, president of the New America Foundation and author of several books on al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, spoke with The Atlantic magazine about the possibility of a terrorist attack to correspond with the U.S. presidential election.

Though he ruled out a major attack on U.S. soil or associated targets, Coll said the potential exists for al-Qaida media releases and attacks in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

"They like to be heard at big moments in American politics, and this campaign is certainly such a moment," he said.

Coll, a former staff writer at The New York Times, cautioned that al-Qaida leaders were contained in their safe havens and a major attack was not anticipated.

"My last well-sourced conversation is a few weeks dated, but last I checked, the U.S. intel system was very quiet in terms of 'chatter' or other indicators of any attack in the U.S.," he stated.