Analysis: Georgia was not on their minds

GENEVA, Switzerland, Sept. 17 (UPI) -- Of course, the famous song written by Stuart Gorrell and Hoagy Carmichael refers to the U.S. state of Georgia, not the republic. Regardless, Georgia (the Republic of) should have been on the minds of Western intelligence services -- and not least on the mind of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, whose expertise is in Soviet affairs. Yet neither she nor the combined Western intelligence agencies were able to foresee Georgia's move into Abkhazia and South Ossetia, nor were they able to predict Russia's response, nor could they foresee that the former Cold War foes are on the brink of a new Cold War. Then again, neither did they predict the sudden collapse of the Soviet Empire.

One expert in Russian affairs did see this crisis coming, however. "This escalation of the conflict was entirely predictable," said Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow on Russian and Eurasian affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Not since the days of the Cold War have tensions between the United States and Russia been so high. In recent weeks Russian and U.S. naval war vessels have been engaging in perilous maneuverings in the Black Sea, a relatively constrained inland body of water.

"What we have today has nothing to do with the Cold War," said Antonenko.

The crisis in the Caucasus, triggered by the Republic of Georgia's military intervention in the breakaway autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, bears no comparison to the Cold War, nor is it a revival of the Cold War, said several experts speaking last week at the Global Strategic Review conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

The East-West crisis that ensued the day after Russia rushed to the rescue of the two rebel republics was further amplified by the fact that two completely opposing views of the conflict were presented in the Western and Russian media. Adding to the seriousness of the crisis was the tardiness of Western nations in replying to the urgency of the unfolding events -- a crisis that should have been on the radar screens of Western intelligence services but was not.

The crisis broke out on the morning of Aug. 7, one day before the Olympic flame was lit in Beijing's new Olympic stadium. Some analysts say the date and time chosen by the Georgian president to launch his offensive was no coincidence. Indeed, Georgia chose the date carefully, assuming -- wrongly, one may add -- that with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin attending the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Summer Olympics, Georgian forces would gain a little more crucial time to complete their incursions into Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Antonenko says, "There is no doubt that the current crisis began on Aug. 7 when Georgia attacked South Ossetia. It was 11 p.m. Beijing time, where Putin was at the time."

The international response, however, did not come for several hours.

A few days ago, Putin related to a group of visiting specialists in Russian affairs, among them Antonenko, two conversations he had with President George W. Bush, who was also attending the opening session of the Summer Games. The first conversation took place shortly after Putin said he communicated to Bush the latest on the crisis, to which Bush replied, "No one wants a war."

Putin said that at 10 o'clock the next morning, several hours after the start of the attack by Georgian troops, he met the American president shortly before the opening ceremony. Putin asked Bush if he had any new information. Bush said he had no new information. Putin told the group of experts that he was "shocked." It was only "after Putin understood that Bush will do nothing that Russian troops moved into Tskhinvali," said Antonenko.

Antonenko told this reporter that she "understood him (Putin) to say that it (the situation) could have been contained and stopped earlier."

Antonenko said that from Putin's comments, he expected Bush to intervene to stop the Georgian attack and understood that Bush did not do so for hours.

While the West delayed in intervening, the Georgians meanwhile used overwhelming force in a war that was completely unjustified, said Antonenko.

And just as predictable was Russia's heavy-handed reply when it sent its far superior military into the breakaway republics but did not stop there. Russian forces pushed into Georgian territory proper.

Russia, however, says Antonenko, had a much wider agenda in its intervention. Moscow clearly wanted to send a message not only to other republics that may have similar intentions, but also to Washington, which the Russians saw as gradually infringing on their former domains. Clearly, there are a number of issues that riled Moscow, such as Washington installing missiles in the Czech Republic and a radar system in Poland, NATO's expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries and plans to include Georgia and Ukraine.

But if the Georgians went too far in their armed actions in the Caucasus, so too did the Russians. The victims of this war were many, even though the actual combat operations were short.

"Casualties have been very significant," said Antonenko. About 115,000 people were displaced by the violence. In South Ossetia 30,000 people fled. In Georgia 120,000 were displaced; 60,000 are still refugees.

And it's not only militarily that Russia committed errors. Analysts believe Moscow also made some very big mistakes politically. In recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russians, said Antonenko, "made the most strategic mistake."

Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, agrees that the crisis in the Caucasus has caused Russia to lose some of its international moral ground.

But he said the Russians are simply exercising their own version of the Monroe Doctrine.

Ischinger also believes that what is happening between Russia and the United States is "certainly no Cold War."

However, a U.S. government official, who asked not to be mentioned by name, told this correspondent, "If it smells like a Cold War and it looks like a Cold War, what else do you call it when you have Russian and American warships looking at each other down the barrels of their 16-inch guns?"

--

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

--

(e-mail: claude@metimes.com)