GENEVA, Switzerland, Sept. 15 (UPI) -- In a sure sign of shifting trends in the conflicts in the Middle East, the resurgence of Taliban violence in Afghanistan took greater prominence over the war in Iraq Sunday at a conference in Geneva, Switzerland, attended by some 380 security and conflict-resolution specialists.
Any remaining doubts that the war in Afghanistan is rapidly eclipsing the one in Iraq dissipated at the conference organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies when all the questions from serving high-ranking members of Western military forces and active and retired diplomats were directed not at Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, but at a far lower-ranking EU diplomat who shared the podium with Zebari.
Indeed, of the 15 or so questions directed at the two-man panel, only three were addressed to the Iraqi minister. To the surprise of many in the audience, Francesc Vendrell, the EU's special representative in Afghanistan, took the spotlight.
However, it should be no surprise as both men confirmed what has been reported in previous weeks and backed up when President George W. Bush ordered an additional 4,500 U.S. Marines to deploy to Afghanistan instead of Iraq.
"The situation in Afghanistan today is getting worse than it has ever been," said Vendrell. He then went on to analyze the situation in the country, commenting on the current insecurity. It was a rather somber picture.
"The Taliban have been able to mount attacks," admitted Vendrell, warning against any urge Western countries might have to pull their troops out.
"We must definitely not think about moving out of Afghanistan," said the EU diplomat. "This is not the time to leave.
"We need to stay as long as the Afghan public, through their elected officials, want us to stay."
Summing up what went wrong for the coalition and warning against a premature withdrawal of coalition troops, Vendrell placed part of the blame on the coalition for trusting former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.
"It was one of the coalition's greatest errors," said the European diplomat.
He reminded those in attendance that coalition forces were welcomed as liberators. "That is no longer so. We are accepted as a necessary evil." He went on to say that "the patience of the Afghan people is not infinite."
In spite of the fact that large numbers of civilian deaths are inflicted by the Taliban, Vendrell told the conference members that a "great deal of antipathy" toward the coalition is created by these civilian deaths.
The European diplomat was highly critical of the international community's performance in Afghanistan, seven years after the United States first intervened.
"We still don't have a mechanism to screen senior appointments," he lamented. He said there was "some improvement in governor appointments," but on the other hand, there was a "growing distance between the government of Afghanistan and the people."
Vendrell said a large number of Afghans are "sitting on the fence," waiting to see which way the wind will blow. Even those who don't support the Taliban are waiting to see what will be the outcome.
"Corruption," said the EU official, "is threatening the legitimacy of the government. There are still large numbers of illegal armed groups, and no progress has been made in trying to curb them."
The list went on:
-- There is no effort to assist those who want to build a secular society.
-- There has been no attempt to help Afghan President Hamid Karzai to establish law and order.
-- The unwillingness of the International Security Assistance Force, the international military coalition serving in Afghanistan, to help Karzai means that people who were corrupt remained in power.
How did Afghanistan get to the current situation?
The first great mistake was the international community's delay in convening the Bonn Conference, which grouped representatives from Afghanistan's major tribes and factions. By the time the Bonn meeting took place, "we were faced with a fait accompli," said Vendrell.
The second mistake was the decision by the United Nations "to go for a light footprint in Afghanistan," he said.
The United Nations took a low profile. For example, there was no attempt to reform the police. There was no international force deployed to remove weapons, which were in abundance.
The third mistake was the U.S. intervention in Iraq, which distracted from the main objective.
The fourth mistake was to limit the ISAF. Immediately following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and the Pentagon, the United States failed to take advantage of the sympathy shown to the United States.
"After Sept. 11, Canadians and Europeans were ready and willing to send forces into Afghanistan," said Vendrell. "By the time the decision was made, it was too late."
And one of the gravest mistakes, said the European diplomat, was trusting Musharraf. "We should not have taken Musharraf at his word," said Vendrell. "The result is that we just now realized that we cannot solve the Afghan problem without solving the problem in Pakistan."
But for that to happen, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive policy for the region. "We didn't have one then, we don't have one now," he said.
Afghanistan is a "country in the middle of a serious crisis." He closed by predicting that it was going to be "a very hot winter."
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(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)
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(e-mail: [email protected])
