Al-Qaida in Iraq key threat, analysts say

WASHINGTON, Aug. 20 (UPI) -- Reports that top al-Qaida in Iraq leaders are fleeing to the Afghan-Pakistan border contrast analyses stating the group is rebuilding its organizational base.

U.S. officials in Iraq laud the work of the Sunni Anbar Awakening Movement that tackled al-Qaida in 2006, dispersing many of its fighters. With the purported death of al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Saeed al-Masri in Afghanistan earlier this year, many officials are hailing the end to the movement in Iraq.

Some U.S. officials are cautious, however, pointing to a deadly attack in Tal Afar, near Mosul, which is one of the remaining al-Qaida strongholds in Iraq. Furthermore, many analysts are reluctant to point to any significant migration, the Council on Foreign Relations said Wednesday.

In testimony before the Senate Armed Service Committee in February, for example, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell estimated that fewer than 100 al-Qaida in Iraq fighters had migrated out of Iraq. Captured documents analyzed by the U.S. Military Academy contain contracts signed by al-Qaida fighters pledging "to never enlist in any organization affiliated with al-Qaida anywhere in the world."

Even if al-Qaida in Iraq leaders are traveling to the tribal areas of Pakistan, the move may signal a broader coordination than a migration from Iraq.

Ted Gistaro, a U.S. national intelligence officer for transnational threats, told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy last week that al-Qaida in Iraq has shored up its organizational base.

"Despite setbacks in Iraq, al-Qaida in Iraq remains al-Qaida's most prominent and lethal regional affiliate," he said.