Future of al-Qaida in Iraq questioned

BAGHDAD, July 25 (UPI) -- Targeted killings and suicide bombings in Iraq may signal the end of al-Qaida, but experts caution political divisions in Baghdad could hamper its defeat.

The Sunni tribal Anbar Awakening movement in 2006 contributed to the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy when Sunni communities took action against al-Qaida fighters in their region.

This, and the U.S. troop "surge" in 2007, diminished the ability of al-Qaida fighters to infiltrate civil society and curtailed their attacks.

U.S. officials estimate there are fewer than 1,200 al-Qaida fighters operating in Iraq, down from highs of around 12,000, suggesting the movement is in decline, the Institute for War & Peace Reporting said.

Though al-Qaida's structure and recruitment capacity have diminished, analysts question what effect a possible U.S. troop withdrawal and political wrangling in Baghdad might have on the future of al-Qaida in Iraq.

"The Sunni-Shiite rift has not been healed," said Kenneth Katzman with the Congressional Research Service in Washington. "(Al-Qaida in Iraq) could still be potentially useful to the Sunnis when they eventually push for more power."