Iraq in a religious civil war, expert says

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., June 3 (UPI) -- The sooner Washington understands the religious nature of the Iraqi conflict, the quicker an exit strategy can evolve, writes an expert on civil war.

Monica Duffy Toft with Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government writes in the Christian Science Monitor that it took "too long" for the Bush administration to recognize the U.S. military became an occupation force in Iraq "and that a transition to Iraqi democracy might not result in a nation that supports U.S. interests."

Toft writes that if the Bush administration recognized Islam drives sectarian conflict in Iraq, it would understand that a "wisely executed" withdrawal from Iraq is the best strategy for peace.

"That's because withdrawal is likely to transform the fighting in Iraq into a defensive struggle for power in a nation-state, as opposed to an offensive battle rooted in religion," she writes.

Toft characterizes the conflict in Iraq as a religious civil war because Sunnis and Shiites consider it so, both groups define the disputes in those terms and both groups identify their enemies and threats accordingly.

With Shiite-on-Shiite conflict now emerging in Iraq, Toft notes U.S. strategists will find it "difficult to know whom to bargain with on the Shiite side, and therefore who can credibly commit to abide by the terms of any settlement."

"The real choice for U.S. and British policymakers is between the more costly failure that will obtain from current policy and the less costly failure that might obtain from a well-thought-out and well-executed withdrawal," she concludes.