Military coup likely without help

BRUSSELS, May 22 (UPI) -- International Crisis Group analysts say unless a new unity government can be negotiated, violence in Zimbabwe is likely to result in a military coup or worse.

According to a report by the independent non-governmental organization, without help from the international community in forming a new national unity government led by Morgan Tsvangirai, violence in the southern African country could escalate.

The Crisis Group argues in a new report entitled "Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition" that the runoff election scheduled for June 27 between longtime President Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai is likely to have serious credibility issues.

Tsvangirai's party, the Movement for Democratic Change, won a parliamentary majority during a March 29 election. It is likely that the MDC will again fare well in the runoff. But Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party is trying to retain power by force.

"Given the level of violence, there seems almost no way to hold a credible second-round vote," Francois Grignon, Crisis Group Africa program director, said in a statement.

"All parties should still aim for this in the best conditions possible, but a negotiated solution between ZANU-PF and the MDC should be the higher priority, since it is far likelier to resolve the crisis peacefully."