Analysis: Future of EU-Russia relations

BERLIN, April 29 (UPI) -- The European Union hopes to soon finish weaving the fabric of a new partnership agreement with Russia amid continuing differences with Moscow over energy security and foreign policy.

Tuesday's meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg is expected to see the adoption of "negotiating directives" for a new EU-Russia cooperation agreement, the existing one having been in dire need of an update for years.

These directives would then set the EU-Russian negotiations over the future of bilateral relations on a more formal footing, and hopefully culminate in the official launch of talks at the EU-Russia summit in Siberia in late June, when incoming Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will make his debut on the international political stage.

While European officials are upbeat about the prospect of dealing with the progressive Medvedev, inside the EU the hurdles to a successful launch of the talks remain high.

Over the past year a Polish-Russian trade had stalled EU-Russia talks; Warsaw dropped its blocking strategy last month, promising it would not veto an EU-Russia deal, but on Monday Lithuania surfaced as yet another potential stumbling block.

Lithuanian officials threatened to veto the negotiation mandate, saying their national security concerns had not been taken seriously enough.

Vilnius argues Russia's shutoff of oil supplies to Lithuania is politically motivated, and not, as Moscow claims, due to technical reasons. The shutoff came in July 2006, shortly after Lithuania's only oil refinery was sold to Poland's PKN Orlen Co. Lithuanian officials have also called on the EU to include in the negotiation mandate the frozen conflicts in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a call Brussels will support, observers say.

One EU weakness of course is again highlighted by the fact that Brussels has not been able to tame Vilnius for the sake of such an important agreement, which has observers worried.

"The EU must be far more confident in its strengths in dealing with Russia and recognize that speaking with one voice, although it is difficult in some areas, is likely to produce far greater benefits than trying to cut bilateral deals," Fraser Cameron, the director of the EU-Russia Center, told Britain-based EU news Web site EurActiv in an interview.

Over the next three days it will be crucial for EU and Russian diplomats to find a common way to deal with those calls; agreeing to a concrete mandate would help negotiations to be less confrontational after a period of difficult bilateral relations, observers say.

Over the past two years EU-Russia relations declined, with differences over human rights, energy security, the independence of the former Serbian province of Kosovo, a U.S.-planned missile defense system and the above-mentioned frozen conflicts in Georgia.

Moreover, realities have changed since President Boris Yeltsin and EU officials in 1997 agreed to the dated cooperation agreement, which was designed to run for a decade: The EU has since invited several former Soviet Republics into its club. More importantly, however, is the economic and political rise of Russia, which has boosted Moscow's self-confidence when it comes to dealing with Brussels. Both sides agree that it's time for a new agreement that would better reflect their current positions and policy priorities.

While the issues remain difficult, EU officials put their hopes in Medvedev, who is seen as more friendly toward the West than Putin has been during his second term in office, during which he butted heads with several EU officials.

Cameron said Brussels should give Medvedev time "to get his feet under the table," and then show clear support for his willingness to reduce corruption and state interference, while at the same time pushing legal and social reforms.

"Let's give him time and let's say, 'If you want to move in these areas, the EU is your best partner.'"