Basra province a political pawn

BASRA, Iraq, April 17 (UPI) -- Iranian and U.S. influence in Iraqi politics puts the October provincial elections at the forefront in determining regional geopolitical dynamics.

U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., pushed an amendment to the September 2007 Defense Authorization bill calling for an Iraqi political system based on federalism. Several key figures in Iraq, including Abdel Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, approved of the measure, while other figures such as Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi opposed the move.

Near the end of March, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered national security forces to launch a major operation in Basra province in an attempt to wrest control away from militants loyal to Sadr, who had fled south following the U.S. troop surge.

Politically and militarily, Iran backed Maliki and Hakim against Sadr's militias in the south for a number of reasons, al-Hayat said Thursday.

The most important, the report says, is because Hakim is an adamant supporter of a weak Iraqi central government with a strong provincial base. Iran's regional influence could reach deep into Iraq with Hakim established in Basra, situated near the Gulf and the Iranian border.

The provincial elections in October could determine the extent of Iran's influence in southern Iraq. If Hakim emerges victorious, Iran reigns supreme, but if Sadr somehow comes out ahead, Iran, the report says, "will lose its long-term bet on a weak and divided Iraq."