Basra sign of political showdown

BAGHDAD, April 1 (UPI) -- The fighting between Shiite militias and Iraqi security forces may be a sign of the beginnings of political infighting ahead of parliamentary elections.

Political analysts categorize the clash as largely a Shiite confrontation between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the Sadrists bloc and cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Islamic Supreme Council, al-Sumaria noted Tuesday.

Neither bloc came out ahead, al-Sumaria said, with Maliki maintaining his Western allies, and Sadr, though he showed his forces are capable of mounting a fight, facing a waning political opinion as the death toll mounted.

Sunday's truce from Sadr came from backdoor negotiations between Sadrists, key Iraqi politicians and leading Iranian military officials. But by that time, the conflict turned from a military one to a political one, note several analysts on the issue.

Writing for Salon.com, noted Middle East expert and University of Michigan Professor Juan Cole notes that, despite a variety of political conflicts underneath the surface of the Basra conflict, it is the upcoming provincial elections that dominate the Shiite row.

With Sadr seeing an opportunity in the Shiite-dominated south to assert control from the dissatisfaction growing with Hakim's leadership there, Maliki took the initiative to boost the sentiment toward the Iraqi government by launching the offensive largely independent of the U.S. military.

Cole notes that the infighting among various political blocs poses a "potential political nightmare" as the Bush administration prepares to leave Washington and the Iraqi government tries to show its independence.

The political climate, Cole says, creates an environment where "the survival of the current Iraqi government … hangs in the balance."