Analysis: A second Kosovo in Georgia?

BERLIN, March 26 (UPI) -- Russia and the West could be headed for a showdown over independence claims of two breakaway regions in Georgia.

It was a symbolic gesture that observers hope to carry the potential for a detente between Russia and Georgia: On Tuesday, the first Georgian passenger plane in 18 months touched down at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport, with the plane's pilot smiling and waving into photographers' cameras. The trip ended a travel embargo by Moscow that was put in place in October 2006 to protest Tbilisi's arrest of four suspected Russian spies.

While Georgia's foreign minister praised the move as a "positive step," relations between Moscow and Tbilisi remain difficult, mainly because of independence claims by two pro-Russian Georgian breakaway regions.

On Friday, Russia's Duma in a statement called on the Russian president and the government to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgian authorities would use force to regain control of its breakaway provinces. Georgia has long accused Russia of secretly supporting the separatists.

The Duma's move is seen as a result of Georgia's bid for NATO membership and a response to the West's recognition of the former Serbian province of Kosovo, which in February proclaimed its independence despite the fierce opposition from Serbia and Russia. Moscow has argued Kosovo's independence would set a precedent for other breakaway regions in the world, with Brussels and Washington noting it was a special case.

Sergei Bagapsh, rebel leader of Abkhazia, doesn't agree with the West's view. He told Russian news agency Interfax that his province has as much right to independence as Kosovo.

"We call on the international community to refuse double standards and recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Bagapsh said. "For us the situation with the recognition of Kosovo is a precedent and all talk of the uniqueness of that case is not credible."

The Black Sea regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s. Thousands of people were killed in the process and hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians were forced to abandon their homes.

Encouraged by the Kosovar example, the regions in early March again called on the world to recognize their independence -- so far, no state has done so, but officials in Europe even before the Duma's statement feared that Russia was preparing measures that go in exactly that direction.

"There is a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said earlier this month, adding the EU would support upholding Georgia's borders. "Georgia's territorial integrity has always been clearly supported by the EU ... this is absolutely clear."

The EU's relations with Russia are already strained; for nearly two years there has been no agreement regarding a new partnership accord. The Slovenian EU presidency last week said it should agree to launch a new round of talks in April, in an apparent bid to improve ties with Moscow. The renewed row over Abkhazia and South Ossetia therefore comes at a most unwanted time, observers say.

Russia is more likely to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia, a former Soviet Republic, finalizes its westward push to NATO. As the conflict is closely linked to NATO's eastward expansion, Washington will have to play a key role in it.

Russia and the United States have already clashed over the placement of a U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe, and the issue threatens to cloud U.S.-Russia relations yet again.

Russia's incoming President Dmitry Medvedev in an interview with the Financial Times said he did not approve of Georgia and Ukraine, two former Soviet republics, becoming NATO members.

"We are not happy about the situation around Georgia and Ukraine," he told the daily ahead of a NATO summit in the Romanian capital Bucharest next week. "No state can be pleased about having representatives of a military bloc to which it does not belong coming close to its borders."

While Washington has been supportive of the bids, arguing it would increase democracy and security in the region, not everybody in Europe is keen on having the former Soviet republics on board: Germany and France oppose their membership because they fear a further destabilization in relations with Moscow.

Observers say the dice will fall on NATO's eastward expansion at the alliance's summit next week in Bucharest, attended by U.S. President Bush as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As for Georgia, observers say the country in Bucharest will have to decide what's more important -- getting into NATO or getting back its separatist territories.