5th-year test for Bush strategy in Iraq

WASHINGTON, March 19 (UPI) -- Five years after U.S.-led forces ousted Saddam Hussein from power, analysts ponder the post-surge environment, the next president and the future of Iraq.

U.S. President George W. Bush announced last year a "surge" of more troops to Iraq to counter the growing threat of civil war. But as the security situation in Iraq, and especially Baghdad, grows increasingly stable, military strategists are faced with the question of whether those security gains can be maintained when U.S. troop levels drop to pre-surge levels in July, Voice of America reported.

Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington and a noted critic of the policies of the Bush administration, said that progress in Iraq has indeed been made but stressed "it has taken us a half a decade" to develop a viable strategy to "fight this kind of war."

Other analysts, notably Michele Flournoy of the Center for the New American Security, wonder about the ability of the Iraqi central government to take advantage of the security situation to emerge from the "bottom up" strategy to follow through with what local communities have done, VOA noted.

Regardless, many officials say the situation in Iraq depends on whether the Bush administration can make the most of its final months in office to rebuild the Iraqi political culture that faltered in the face of widely recognized security gains.