Walker's World: The U.K. non-referendum

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- The ratification of the new European Union Treaty is not going quite as well as expected, with only 26 percent of Irish people planning to vote "yes" in their referendum. The vast majority, 68 percent, told pollsters for the Irish Times that they did not know enough about it to make a decision.

That is hardly an excuse that can be made in Britain, where the House of Commons is debating the Lisbon Treaty. Lawmakers do so as Prime Minister Gordon Brown hosted a brisk "economic summit" Tuesday with his French, German and Italian counterparts, and with EU Commission president Jose Barroso.

The summit leaders issued a statement all for more transparency among financial institutions, but were somewhat overshadowed by rancorous accusations that Brown's Labor government has "broken its pledge" to hold a referendum on Europe. A British gambling millionaire is now filing a lawsuit that demands the government keep its promise.

This is a mess, and no British party is coming out of this well. The Conservative opposition, now leading Labor by 38 percent to 30 percent in polls, is pretending to be opposed, while making it clear that it does not want to leave the EU. The third-party Liberal Democrats is divided, half of it demanding a referendum in the name of the people's choice, the other half opposed on the grounds that the British public would certainly vote "no."

The parliamentary "debate" is a puppet show. Neither a line nor a word of the treaty text can be changed, and Labor members of Parliament are being "whipped" (compelled, on pain of losing their party affiliation) to vote in favor. More than 50 Labor MPs have called for a referendum and are being ignored. The debate has also been limited to 12 days by the government, despite promises that MPs would be able "to scrutinize the text line by line."

During the first debate, Michael Connarty, the pro-EU Labor MP who chairs Parliament's European Scrutiny Committee, said compared to the previous Maastricht Treaty, "the Lisbon Treaty represents a more significant point in our relationship with Europe."

"This Treaty is the tipping point -- it will take the center of power away from this Parliament to Brussels. There is no doubt about that." And he added that under the Treaty "the role of national Parliaments will be massively diminished."

Such a deep constitutional change would seem to make a powerful case for a referendum, and much of the British media demands one. The best-selling tabloid The Sun, owned by Rupert Murdoch, has called on its readers to "make the government back down and give the British people the last word on this obnoxious treaty." The pro-Conservative Daily Telegraph said the government's tactics were "a parable of this country's relationship with Europe: half-truths -- even untruths -- are told, criticism is shut down, sovereignty is not so much transferred as purloined and both the people and its representatives are treated with contempt."

The pro-EU and liberal-left Guardian opened its op-ed page to the French and German ambassadors, who declared predictably, "The treaty is an excellent blueprint for working and growing together, while still retaining our identities, as we continue to build Europe."

Part of the problem, which is being highlighted by the industrious researchers of the very active Open Europe think tank, is that MPs and the British public are starting to realize that the Lisbon Treaty is a blank check. The treaty gives broad powers to the EU without specifying them, including the authority of the proposed new EU president and the new foreign minister and the size, budget and authority of his new EU diplomatic service. Cooperation in EU defense is mandated, but its extent is left vague. Nor has it yet been spelled out what extra powers should be handed to Europol, the EU police force, and to Eurojust, the EU prosecution service.

"Much of the Lisbon Treaty is about giving the EU the power to create new institutions and arrangements and to decide on how they will actually work in practice at a later date. Many of these crucial decisions will be made by majority voting, so the U.K. is unlikely to be able to stop any details it doesn't like the look of. Once the treaty is ratified, there'll be no going back," commented Neil O'Brien, director of Open Europe.

The British public seems pretty clear in its views, were it given a chance to express them. A Daily Telegraph poll found 64 percent now believe there should be a referendum on the EU Treaty, with 42 percent saying they would vote "No."

A Guardian poll found 54 percent who thought membership was good for British jobs and trade (which explains why Brown thought his Tuesday economic summit was a good idea), against 41 percent who said it was not. But a large majority of 67 percent of voters believed that Britain's identity was being lost, an increase from 58 percent who felt that way in 2001. A majority, 52 percent, now also agree that the EU makes decisions in an undemocratic way.

On balance, that Guardian poll showed British voters in favor, by 58 percent to 35 percent, of remaining within the EU, but they are even more strongly against more integration with Europe. British voters remain strongly pro-American, with only 29 percent saying that Britain's warmest relations are with the EU while 64 percent said the warmest ties are with the United States.

It was just as well that the Lisbon Treaty does not have to be ratified in Norway, which has also voted in successive referendums to stay out of the EU. A new poll by the Norwegian broadcasting service, NRK, found a record high sentiment against joining the EU, with 54.3 percent against and only 34.6 percent in favor. Norway's government has wisely decided not even to raise the issue.

Meanwhile back in Britain, the bitterness of the anti-EU camp is such that the conservative Daily Mail is questioning whether the venerable BBC can be trusted to be impartial on Europe, given that the organization has recently taken out $275 million in loans from the European Investment Bank.