Analysis: Slovenia in the EU driver's seat

BERLIN, Jan. 7 (UPI) -- Slovenia has become the first post-Communist state to take over the European Union's rotating six-month presidency, and it has set itself the difficult goal of helping to solve the Kosovo conflict.

With just 2 million people, Slovenia is among the smallest EU states. Until the end of June, however, the country -- founded only 17 years ago after the breakup of former Yugoslavia -- in its hands holds the political reins of Europe.

Slovenian officials have in the past weeks announced they want to shift the EU's foreign policy focus to the Balkans and to U.N.-administered Kosovo in particular.

Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel in December 2007 expressed his government's commitment to help solve the ethnic conflict waging there since NATO forces in 1999 ended a bloody war between the Serbian military and Albanian rebels.

"I hope we can contribute to resolving the Kosovo question during our presidency," Rupel said, adding the prediction that "these processes will be concluded by the end of our presidency."

It's quite obvious that the days of Kosovo as a Serbian province are numbered; the Portuguese EU presidency has managed to formally unite the 27 member states over the future of the province. The EU presidency will recognize a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo leaders, and most -- if not all -- members will follow suit. Serbia elects a new government in January and February, and a declaration for independence by Kosovo's prime minister is expected after that event.

Several member states, however, including Cyprus, Greece and Spain, have in the past voiced concern about a possible domino effect for separatist movements inside their own borders in case of Kosovo's independence, so Slovenia has to keep the pack together over the next months.

And there are more potential conflicts Ljubljana will have to manage before stability returns to the Balkans.

The EU first of all hopes that Kosovo leaders will accept close monitoring of its independence. EU leaders have agreed to send a 1,800-strong police and civilian EU mission that would coexist with (but ultimately replace) the ongoing U.N. mission on the ground, to help manage the transition to independence. It's not guaranteed, however, that the likes of Cyprus and Greece will take part in the mission. Any stark public deviation concerning contribution to the mission will tarnish the EU's efforts in the Balkans, observers fear.

Ljubljana will also have to take the wind out of the sails of attempts to use Kosovo as a blueprint by separatists in Georgia or Moldova, where for years frozen conflicts have been the source of political instability.

And then there is the difficult task of managing the EU's relations with Serbia. Belgrade is unwilling to grant more than autonomy to Kosovo, which it considers the historical and spiritual cradle of the Serbian nation. While both Belgrade and Pristina have committed to non-violence, the possibility for the outbreak of aggression can't be ruled out.

In the least of all cases, the relations with Serbia will be severely hampered, observers say. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has already threatened to refuse a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU -- the first step to EU membership -- if Brussels sends its mission to back Kosovo's independence.

But there is more to Slovenia's EU presidency than just Kosovo.

Ljubljana wants to continue the German and Portuguese push for a new constitution, and has set its eyes on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, a trimmed-down version of the constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005. The treaty, which would pave the way for substantial reforms inside the 27-member body, is hoped to take effect by Jan. 1, 2009.

As the most successful and neutral of the former Soviet states, Slovenia may also act as a bridge between the EU and Russia, a relationship that has received some serious cracks over the past year.

Observers in Europe and in Russia hope that Slovenia is able to create the conditions that finally, a new partnership agreement can be signed between Brussels and Moscow -- but of course that won't be easy given Russia's unconditional support for Serbia in the issue that stands above all others: the Kosovo conflict.