Analysis: Who killed Bhutto?

WASHINGTON, Dec. 27 (UPI) -- Just before her return to Pakistan in October, Benazir Bhutto told UPI Editor at Large Arnaud de Borchgrave the names of men she believed were out to kill her.

"I have been informed that Baitul Masood, an Afghan, Hamza Bin Laden, an Arab, and a Red Mosque militant have been sent to kill me," she said in an e-mail message written just prior to boarding a flight to Pakistan ending her self-imposed exile. "I wrote (President Pervez) Musharraf telling him that if something happened, then I wanted these three held responsible -- the people who I think are behind them. I have also left a copy of the letter in case something happens (to me), but I expect all to go smoothly."

It didn't. An attack on her welcome-home convoy killed 140 people, but Bhutto escaped unhurt.

Two months later she wasn't as lucky. Bhutto was killed Thursday along with as many as 20 other people during a political rally in Rawalpindi.

Italian news Web site ADN Kronos International reported Thursday that al-Qaida had claimed responsibility for the killing.

"We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat (the) mujahedin," Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, al-Qaida's chief in Afghanistan, told AKI in a telephone interview.

Although the authenticity of those comments could not be independently verified, it should come as no surprise that al-Qaida or its affiliated groups wanted Bhutto dead.

First, she was a woman; second, she was Westernized. And during her years of exile from Pakistan, Bhutto regularly criticized both Musharraf and the growth of radical Islamic movements in her country. She also vowed to tackle al-Qaida and the Taliban were she to be elected prime minister again. (Elections were scheduled for next month but now may be rescheduled.)

"The areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan became a haven for extremists, and the extremism and terrorism is flowing down into other areas," she said at a recent meeting.

The region is believed to be a haven for al-Qaida and the Taliban, many of who are united by tribal loyalties with the local population across the porous border that divides the two countries. Following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks Musharraf threw in his lot with the U.S.-led war on terrorism and abandoned his former Taliban allies. This made him many enemies among Islamist radicals, and the president, who recently stepped down as military chief in order to keep his political post, survived several assassination attempts. The Red Mosque incident, referred to in Bhutto's e-mail, was a major challenge to Musharraf's rule. Rebels holed themselves in Islamabad's Red Mosque before the army flushed them out, causing many fatalities.

Following Bhutto's killing Thursday, attention in Pakistan focused on the military and the powerful Inter Services Intelligence spy agency, which is believed to have links to the militants. Bhutto was seen as one of two major political threats to the military. The other, Nawaz Sharif, has been barred from contesting elections. On Thursday he called for nationwide protests and demanded Musharraf's resignation.

"If Musharraf can spend ... (millions) on his own security, could he not spend some amount on the security of Bhutto?" Sharif told India's NDTV.

Fingers were also pointed at the military, said Asma Jehangir, a prominent Pakistani human-rights activist who heads the Pakistan Human Rights Commission.

''We are traumatized. People all over are crying," she told NDTV. "Everyone is saying that this army has killed Benazir. There is going to be more bloodshed. Will the world now finally wake up?"