Analysis: Bin Laden is back. Or is he?

WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 (UPI) -- A videotape emerged late last week on an Islamist Web site showing someone who appeared to be the leader of al-Qaida delivering a message intended for the American people, asking them to lend him their ears. On the tape, the most-wanted man in the world with a bounty of $50 million on his head looked relaxed, healthier than in his last appearance three years ago. But was it really Osama bin Laden?

The bin Laden in the new video looked a few years older and a few pounds heavier than when last seen. Nothing suspicious about that. However, there are a number of anomalies in the video that require additional analysis.

First is the color and texture of bin Laden’s beard. When last seen three years ago it was thinning, gray and unkempt; in this new video, his beard is jet black and somewhat bushy and groomed, an indication his beard was either dyed, or is possibly a fake.

The second anomaly on this video is its focus, or lack thereof. This point requires special attention, particularly when compared to previous tapings by al-Qaida, which were always clear and sharp. In contrast, last week’s video was soft, as though to purposely make it harder to positively identify the speaker. The man seen talking in this latest tape appears to be somewhat darker than bin Laden, and his nose is larger when compared with previous photographs.

“Bin Laden dyeing his hair and beard, whilst hiding out somewhere in Pakistan, is really bizarre because it makes him, a man who claims he wants to be a martyr, look vain and ridiculous as he seems to have the time and priority to do a major makeover before appearing on camera. It does not fit with the image he has so carefully nurtured, the masquerade of his being a holy warrior devoid of normal human traits,” said M.J. Gohel of the London-based Asia-Pacific Foundation.

“If it is indeed bin Laden then he is exhibiting a very different personality trait and shift from previous messages,” Gohel said.

The third anomaly is the absence of the ubiquitous AK-47.

“He is dressed in robes, and the usual symbolic combat jacket and the Kalashnikov, which have been in previous video messages, have been dispensed with this time,” Gohel points out.

“It is truly odd that bin Laden speaks about the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woe, because the wording and sentiments are those of a rebellious young Western-born individual and not the head of al-Qaida,” Gohel said.

While there is no clear time stamp on the video, bin Laden -- or the man purporting to be him -- made a point of mentioning events dating the video. He made reference to the election of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and recent economic developments in the United States.

The tape surfaces on the eve of the sixth anniversary of Sept. 11, no doubt intended to remind the United States that bin Laden, while still on the run, has managed to evade the best trained military and intelligence forces in the world for six years.

“Despite the fact that America possesses the greatest economic power and the most powerful and modern military arsenal, despite spending on this war much more than what the entire world spends on its armies, and despite it being the superpower influencing world policies -- as if it has a monopoly on the unjust veto right -- despite all of this, and with God's help, 19 young men were able to change the direction of its compass,” bin Laden said in the tape.

Referring to the war in Iraq, bin Laden said of President Bush that “he became like someone who plows the sea and gains nothing but failure.”

He told the American people that their innocence in electing President Bush to a second term “is similar to my innocence of the blood of your sons on the 11th, were I to claim such a thing.”

Bin Laden compared Bush’s attitude in Iraq to that of former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, who bin Laden said “was dominated by pride and arrogance and refused to recognize the facts on the ground.” This, said bin Laden, was the greatest reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"Since the first year of Afghanistan's invasion, reports indicated that the Russians were losing the war,” said bin Laden. It was a fact that Brezhnev refused to admit, “so that it would not be added as a defeat in his personal history."

"How similar is your situation today to their situation about two decades ago? The mistakes of Brezhnev are being committed by Bush. When asked about the date of withdrawing his troops from Iraq, he said that the withdrawal will not take place during his term, but during the term of his successor. The significance of these words is not hidden."

On the war in Iraq Osama bin Laden said: “There are two solutions. One is from our side, and it is to escalate the fighting and killing against you.” The second solution he said was for the American people to convert. "I invite you to embrace Islam," he said.

Hardly an offer Americans are likely to lend their ears to.

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(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)