Analysis: What to do in Afghanistan?

BERLIN, Aug. 1 (UPI) -- NATO argues more troops are needed to win the war in Afghanistan; experts say, however, that a simple mandate change can already greatly improve the situation: End the U.S. anti-terror mission Operation Enduring Freedom and give the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force general command powers, they say.

"OEF has overstayed its welcome; its resources should be transferred to ISAF, and the NATO general in charge should get general command powers," Markus Kaim, a security expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin-based think tank, told United Press International in a telephone interview.

Such a move, which would require the contributing states to give up their national caveats -- stipulations where soldiers can and cannot be sent -- would "greatly improve the efficiency and quality" of the troops stationed in Afghanistan, Kaim said.

The security expert in his new paper argues that only a coherent, unified approach under one mandate guarantees the best conditions for success in Afghanistan, a country where nearly 50,000 foreign troops operate in two different missions.

Some 36,000 troops operate under NATO command with ISAF, and roughly 10,000 more with the anti-terror mission OEF.

While OEF's mandate is to fight al-Qaida and the Taliban, ISAF's primary task is to support the security structure of the country, including training and assisting Afghan police and military forces.

In recent months, however, international forces faced an increasing number of roadside bombs, terrorist attacks and casualty-heavy skirmishes -- not only in the southern provinces, where ISAF has been present since the fall of 2006, but also in the previously quiet northern provinces, where they have been since early 2002.

Moreover, popular support for the mission has sunk to an all-time low, after OEF and ISAF bombing campaigns have killed not only Taliban rebels, but also dozens of civilians. NATO officials earlier this week said they would rethink their tactics and throw smaller bombs.

Security analysts have warned in the past that Afghanistan is facing a watershed -- al-Qaida and the Taliban are determined to do everything to break up the international coalition. With kidnappings -- the biggest being the hostage drama surrounding 23 South Koreans, two of whom are dead -- and terrorist attacks on foreign soldiers and aid workers, they want to force member states to pull out their troops.

In recent months they have targeted several German troops who were previously spared -- experts say because they are from a country where popular support for the Afghanistan mission is rather low. Germany will decide over its three mandates for Afghanistan this fall. Apart from troops with ISAF and OEF, Germany also has six Tornado jets flying reconnaissance missions in Afghanistan.

Germany -- along with France and Italy -- has been criticized for sticking to its caveats and not sending soldiers to the casualty-heavy southern and eastern provinces.

Britain -- with 7,100 troops in Afghanistan the second-biggest contributor behind the United States -- is unhappy about the national caveats, as its soldiers are paying a heavy price for taking much of the fire: British troops are stationed mainly in Helmand province, where fighting is intense and roadside terror attacks pose a constant threat. As of Wednesday the British death toll in Afghanistan towered at 63 since the start of 2006, just three casualties short of the sad record in Iraq over the same period.

Along with NATO and Washington, London has urged its European Union partners to send in more troops, a move that Germany has categorically ruled out -- until this week.

On Monday a senior member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives told Germany's mass-circulation daily Bild that his party was considering an increase of German troop levels in Afghanistan.

"If the German government feels it is necessary to boost the German contingent, then this is the right thing to do also from my point of view," said Conservative Secretary-General Volker Kauder, adding that he believed the German military was capable of sending more soldiers to Afghanistan.

However, troop increases have to be accompanied by mission strategy adaptations to really have an impact, Kaim said.

Germany, like several other nations, should give up its caveats and allow sending soldiers into the whole of Afghanistan, he said.

"The Germans can't elude that responsibility forever," he told UPI. "I believe that within the next year, we will see German soldiers in the southern provinces."

Kaim added such a move would include making clear to the German public that civilian casualties and dead German soldiers are part of the tragic reality that today is Afghanistan.