MOSCOW, April 26 (UPI) -- The maiden visit by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko to Russia, set for April 15-16, was canceled and the reasons provided the main intrigue of relations between the two countries.
So far two explanations have been offered by Ukraine: an "unwholesome" atmosphere created by Russian Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, who was reappointed to his post, and the spring sowing campaign. Russia, for its part, has stressed in every way there is nothing stopping Timoshenko from visiting Russia, and "the prime minister is welcome in Moscow." However, there are grounds to believe neither Russia nor Ukraine needs it.
With the change of president in Ukraine, Moscow and Kiev suddenly stopped understanding what their bilateral relations were all about. Ukraine has clearly opted for Euro integration as its top priority: This is the aim, it says, that should be a yardstick with which to judge all political and economic projects between the two countries.
Russia continues to think in terms of a geopolitical struggle for Ukraine's "reorientation." Its cornerstone is Russia's wish to preserve the blueprints for the Common Economic Space agreed during the rule of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.
For Russia it is a strategic project, a mechanism for integrating the Russian and Ukrainian economies, and increasing Russian leverage over Ukraine. Kuchma and his premier, Viktor Yanukovich, accepted it with some opposition. It was a political decision to support Moscow ahead of the next election.
The installation of Viktor Yushchenko as president called into question the future of the CES. The new leader made it plain the project may be revised and implemented only in those areas where it does not contradict the task of Euro integration. During a recent visit made by Putin to Ukraine, the Ukrainian authorities softened their rhetoric. Timoshenko changed her tactics. From being skeptical of the CES, she decided to defend it. But now Ukraine is offering Russia its own version of the CES, proceeding exclusively from Ukrainian interests.
The first visit by the Ukrainian premier to Russia was to have presented a new vision of the CES, a new format for economic relations based not on a political alliance, but on a pragmatic vision of CES efficiency from the Ukrainian viewpoint. Was Russia ready to discuss the CES as "formulated" by Ukraine?
Clearly, the two positions had not been agreed in time for the abortive visit. Each side intended to promote its own version of the future CES. A similar situation existed on the Commonwealth of Independent States. Economics Minister Sergei Terekhin said Ukraine might stop financing this structure because it did not have "any prospects." However, Putin recently said the CIS had been set up to ensure a "civilized divorce" from the Soviet Union but "needed to be maintained all the same."
CIS and CES were to have been central to Timoshenko's talks in Russia. For now, however, there is little chance any understanding may be reached. Timoshenko calculated on appearing as a CES champion, and seen against that, Moscow's reluctance to accept the Ukrainian version of the project would have looked destructive and contradictory.
In reality, however, the first visit by the new Ukrainian premier was in danger of ending in failure. The format Timoshenko had chosen for dialogue with Moscow on the CES might have been effective in Ukraine, but she was seen in a different light in Russia.
Ustinov said a criminal case against her has not been closed, and that she remained on the wanted list. The prosecutor's words were a reminder Timoshenko is viewed in Russia not only as a prime minister but also as a co-accused in a crime. That was the informal excuse for canceling the visit, which was made clear by Terekhin.
But later this version was disavowed, including by Timoshenko, who said, on the instructions of Yushchenko, all foreign visits by the heads of ministries and government departments were being postponed for two weeks until the sowing season was over.
The Ukrainian leadership understands a serious crisis in relations between the two countries might have broken out if Ustinov's words were quoted as the official reason for calling off the visit. Accordingly, a more plausible pretext was chosen -- the spring sowing campaign. Timoshenko hinted that a visit to Russia was important for her, but the president's directives must be followed without discussion.
Both countries are demonstrating they are not ready to enter a conflict over the cancellation, and, moreover, want to see the visit happen. But at the same time, they realize no effective negotiations on the CES and CIS are possible yet. Russia does not want to accept Timoshenko's tough conditions, while the Ukrainian premier does not want to arrive in Russia while standing accused of a crime.
If previously the assumption was that the case was going nowhere, Ustinov's comments made it clear Russia was in no hurry to close it. And, moreover, its investigation will be continued, leaving relations with the "Orange" Revolution's princess in the air.
On balance, the visit proved to be a non-event needed neither by Timoshenko nor Russia. Its cancellation provided a chance to save face by preventing failure. Moscow will stress again that it is willing to see Timoshenko in Russia, and Ukraine will find a reason to require her services at home.
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(Tatyana Stanovaya is a leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti news agency.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
