Playing the India card in Afghanistan

HELSINKI, Finland, Dec. 9 (UPI) -- Speaking during a joint news conference with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said: "We have a shared interest in promoting prosperity and stability in the Asia Pacific region. We have a common stake in peace and development in Afghanistan and in defeating terrorism in South Asia and beyond."

Singh clearly noted that progress in Afghanistan translated to broader security benefits for the entire Asian region. Perhaps not coincidentally, his visit to the United States occurred roughly on the first anniversary of the Mumbai terrorist attack, which killed 173 people and wounded 308. India believes that the terrorists were supported by the extremist Lashkar-e-Toiba. Although organized in Afghanistan, the LET is believed to be operating from Pakistan and widely suspected of other terrorist acts against India including within Kashmir.

During his Dec. 1 speech at the U.S. Military Academy, Obama said: "We will strengthen Pakistan's capacity to target those groups that threaten our countries and have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe haven for terrorists whose location is known and whose intentions are clear. America is also providing substantial resources to support Pakistan's democracy and development. We are the largest international supporter for those Pakistanis displaced by the fighting. And going forward, the Pakistani people must know: America will remain a strong supporter of Pakistan's security and prosperity long after the guns have fallen silent, so that the great potential of its people can be unleashed."

Pakistan was mentioned 25 times during the president's speech, India not once.

Ashley J. Tellis, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "India's core interest is for the Taliban not to return to power. They fear Afghanistan would then once again provide a haven to anti-Indian groups who before long would find sustenance in Pakistan."

It isn't widely known that India is the fifth-largest bilateral donor of civilian assistance to Afghanistan. In a Forbes report, Marshall M. Bouton and Alyssa Ayres state that the impact of India's $1.2 billion contribution to date may prove relatively greater than the United States' and NATO's. India has supported projects in power, medicine, agriculture, education, road and building construction and provided training for civil servants. India's agricultural research expertise in subsistence farming may offer greater know-how to move Afghanistan from a poppy-growing culture.

The proximity of India to Afghanistan and its approximately 10 times lower labor costs compared with most Western countries may present a more viable solution for certain longer-term nation-building projects, suggested Tellis.

The greatest obstacle to a greater Indian role in Afghanistan is Pakistan. After four wars and a festering disagreement over Kashmir, deep animosities and suspicions remain. The fate of Afghanistan has become a pawn in the strategic chess match between these two nuclear-armed regional powers.

Saeed Shah, writing in the Christian Science Monitor, claims that the Pakistani government's views contrast sharply with the newly announced Obama Afghan surge strategy. That is, as Shah states, at least some leaders of Pakistan want to negotiate with the Taliban, restrain India and place surge troops on the border rather than around population centers. The last recommendation is the exact opposite of the plan of U.S. Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

Pakistan considers India's activities in Afghanistan as a potential threat, especially because India has been a longtime supporter of the Northern Alliance -- the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara tribes traditionally opposed to Pashtun domination from southeast Afghanistan.

As Shah reports, because Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Ghilzai Pashtun-led Taliban, Pakistani officials think they could broker a deal to reduce Afghan President Hamid Karzai to a figurehead leader and divide power between the Pashtun Taliban and Afghanistan's Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara minorities.

This strategy might explain Pakistan's less-than-overwhelming military efforts to clear its territory of Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida elements. As Lisa Curtis of The Heritage Foundation suggests, the Pakistanis are not targeting the Afghan Taliban in the north but focusing on Pakistani Taliban groups. There may be some in the Pakistani security forces, who would like to see the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan to secure their western border from perceived hostile influences of Indians or perhaps restive Afghans.

Clearly, the United States, NATO and the Afghan government must regain the military initiative in Afghanistan. Pakistan should recognize that its long-term stability and success will not spring from the continued presence of extremists on its territory. Quite the contrary, such a situation perpetuates unnecessary negative and unstable images of Pakistan, which only inhibits greater investment and international cooperation.

Except for rogue states and extremist factions, no one has anything to gain from continued instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The state of affairs has to move as quickly as possible from the military to the political realm, from a reach for hegemony to a balance-of-power configuration and from a national to a regional solution.

India can play a constructive role and be a major contributor to a successful outcome.

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(Lawrence Sellin, Ph.D., is a colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve and a veteran of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)